Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, June 27, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Ambridge 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 Vino Dominus 3.50 1.2 2-1
2 2 Promissione 5.00 3 6-1
4 4 Strategist 15.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Mo Moe Mow 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Shogun 4.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Bourbon Flight 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Magnum Force 6.00 1 2-1
8 8 Heavenville 3.50 2.4 5-1
2 2 Haunted Flame 1.20 2.5 5-1
3 3 Complex Music 8.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Beck’s Spirit 12.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Putting Eagle 20.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Reverse Merger 10.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Megastar 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Go to Girl 4.00 1 2-1
8 8 Chopsticks 3.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Muriel Sax 15.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Vajra 6.00 4.5 8-1
5 5 Sina 8.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 El Barrio 6.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Teatonic 8.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Sea Zest 20.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Mo Lake Time 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Dealing Justice 6.00 1 2-1
7 7 Demi 2.50 1.6 3-1
2 2 Awesome Annmarie 8.00 2.9 6-1
1 1 Protomagic 12.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Tiffany Twist 4.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 Problematica 3.50 3.9 7-1
4 4 Crushed Ice 30.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Frango Electrico 20.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 Poetica 8.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Cora’s Legacy 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Write Off Jerry 8.00 1 2-1
8 8 Risk Manager 4.00 2.9 5-1
10 10 Shefflin 10.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Quadra Island 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Swiss Slang 15.00 6.1 12-1
9 9 Indy Magic 20.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 Azoi 30.00 7.4 14-1
6 6 Another Mystery 3.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Lamplighter Jack 12.00 SCRATCH
1 1 El Kabong 4.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Pilkington 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Transcendental 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Bolt On the Rocks 3.50 1 2-1
9 9 True Passion 3.00 1.3 2-1
6 6 Always Practical 10.00 2 4-1
7 7 Rose Alabama 15.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Brunch With Amy 8.00 4.4 8-1
10 10 Give Her Another 8.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 I’m a Cookie Lover 30.00 6.6 12-1
8 8 Mom’s Cheesecake 12.00 7.2 14-1
2 2 Intermittent Fast 4.50 SCRATCH
5 5 Gridlock 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Side Eye 2.00 1 2-1
10 10 Chance 8.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Uncle William 20.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Strato 15.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Good Money 3.50 4.5 8-1
9 9 Good Lord 10.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Redacted 20.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Brody 30.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 Dancin for Gold 12.00 7.9 15-1
4 4 Googol Joke 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Gettinby 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Islander 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 Perfect Shot 4.50 1.2 2-1
4 4 Feeling Beachy 2.50 1.5 3-1
6 6 L. A. Woman 8.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Promisemeanempire 15.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Aunt Mo 10.00 4.5 8-1
3 3 Classy’n Connected 6.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Fasta Lavista Baby 20.00 7.4 14-1
2 2 Faire Plaisir 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Let My People Go 6.00 1 2-1
2 2 Go Captain 3.50 1.2 2-1
10 10 Script 8.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Bad Beat Brian 8.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Dark Afternoon 20.00 5.9 11-1
12 12 Lunar Module 15.00 6.1 12-1
11 11 Surf City 10.00 7.3 14-1
1 1 B D Valeski 20.00 7.3 14-1
14 14 Balsa 20.00 7.5 14-1
9 9 Eakly 30.00 7.8 15-1
7 7 Baby Boat 30.00 9.5 18-1
15 15 Spycraft 30.00 SCRATCH
3 3 One Timer 2.50 SCRATCH
16 16 Doctor Jeff 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Gunner Bay 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Test Factor 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Almostgone Rocket 2.00 1 2-1
9 9 Top Gun Girl 6.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Asternia 12.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Harbor Springs 3.50 4.8 9-1
10 10 Everyoneloveslinda 10.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Little Prankster 4.50 6 11-1
5 5 Miss Arlington 20.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Pistol 20.00 6.6 12-1
2 2 Liuzza 30.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Marmalade Skye 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Evan On Earth 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Taylor’s Version 8.00 2.4 4-1
7 7 Copp 6.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Bold Strength 4.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Fiddling Felix 10.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 The Reinbow Factor 30.00 7.1 13-1
14 14 Military Cruiser 12.00 7.3 14-1
10 10 Up Country 12.00 7.9 15-1
12 12 Wobbegong 10.00 8.8 17-1
13 13 Only Phil 15.00 9.4 18-1
9 9 Woodlander 20.00 10.1 19-1
16 16 Rule Sixty Two 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Doroteo 10.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Favorite Day 12.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Unitas 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Flick 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.