Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, June 29, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Strong Destiny 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 Margarita Girl 3.50 1.6 3-1
2 2 Bundle 3.00 3 6-1
4 4 Lemon Zest 4.50 3.8 7-1
1 1 In the Stars 8.00 4 7-1
8 8 Buckle Chaser 8.00 4.5 9-1
7 7 Dancing Drums 8.00 5 10-1
5 5 Hissyfitter 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Gun Party 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Shopper’s Revenge 4.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Sun Thunder 5.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 First Player 6.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Gamblers Tail 3.50 5.9 11-1
4 4 Raguel 3.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Emily’s Joy 15.00 1 2-1
6 6 Amazing Amanda 4.50 1.3 3-1
2 2 It Ain’t Like That 4.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Sugaree 12.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Believe in Magic 8.00 4 8-1
10 10 Undisputable 12.00 4 8-1
1 1 Victory Music 8.00 5 9-1
11 11 Command the Stars 8.00 5.2 10-1
12 12 Minimalist 12.00 7.4 14-1
7 7 Jinxy 15.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Dolce Vino 6.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Carol’s Melody 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Very Quiet 12.00 1 2-1
2 2 Exonerate 3.50 2.2 4-1
13 13 Devilish Act 10.00 3 6-1
7 7 Blackout Time 12.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Quality Spirits 12.00 4 8-1
3 3 King of Heat 20.00 5 9-1
9 9 I Did I Did 4.50 5.1 10-1
4 4 Dazzle d’Oro 5.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Alpyland 6.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Seal Bay 6.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Bedeviled 10.00 6.5 12-1
10 10 Time for Money 15.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Il Sorpasso 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Foxxy Cleopatra 4.50 1 2-1
9 9 Satin Blue 5.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Niki Nine Doors 3.50 3.9 7-1
4 4 Cart Girl Sam 6.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Twirl Around 12.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Blue Squall 20.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Ervadean 15.00 6 11-1
10 10 Afternoon Diva 15.00 8.1 15-1
7 7 Everyoneloveslinda 6.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Moonlit Lady 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 High Fashion Kate 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Bashford Manor S.) – Bashford Manor S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Saul Elliott 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 Spice Runner 2.50 1.3 2-1
4 4 Romeo 4.50 3.1 6-1
5 5 Comport 3.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Duke of Suggins 12.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Longstrider 12.00 6 11-1
7 7 Password 3.50 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Debutante S.) – Debutante S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Light Won Up 5.00 1 2-1
4 4 Americathegreat 3.50 1.9 4-1
1 1 Essential Coffee 3.00 2.1 4-1
8 8 Color Comin’ In 4.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Percy’s Bar 4.50 3.1 6-1
9 9 Lilies N Paradise 10.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Mine Strike 15.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Jaboss 20.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Vajra 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Hanshin S. Presented By Jra) – Hanshin S. Presented By Jra

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Saudi Crown 1.80 1 2-1
2 2 Judge Miller 6.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Tumbarumba 10.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Extra Anejo 6.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Banishing 2.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Cagliostro 10.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Will Take It 10.00 7 13-1
3 3 Best Actor 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Anchorage Overnight S.) – Anchorage Overnight S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Pin Up Betty 1.60 1 2-1
8 8 Charlene’s Dream 3.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Generous Lover 10.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Sparkle Blue 6.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Duvet Day (IRE) 5.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Long Ago (GB) 6.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Everland 20.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Faith Understood 30.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Adrasteia 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maxfield S.) – Maxfield S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Retribution 8.00 1 2-1
8 8 Flood Zone 4.00 1 2-1
10 10 Verifire 5.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 Captain Cook 4.50 2.2 4-1
13 13 Furio 8.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Ancient World 12.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Smoken Wicked 10.00 2.8 5-1
11 11 Kale’s Angel 20.00 4 8-1
7 7 Speed King 5.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Normandy Coast 15.00 7.5 14-1
9 9 Max Got Excited 30.00 7.7 15-1
4 4 Perfect Force 20.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Dreaminblue 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Joyous Song 12.00 1 2-1
10 10 Straight Forward 10.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Good Game 4.50 2.2 4-1
4 4 Massarat 3.50 2.3 4-1
2 2 Twolatebabydoll (FR) 4.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Merry Madison 5.00 2.7 5-1
9 9 Maple Syrup 15.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Kimber Spice 15.00 3.7 7-1
11 11 Miss Pharaoh 6.00 4.3 8-1
12 12 Grayleigh 20.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Hope Diamond 30.00 6 11-1
6 6 Marble Arch 30.00 10.5 20-1
14 14 Cause I’m Perfect 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Marcinkowski 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Eyes On Italy 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.