Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, July 3, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Omey Island 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Flat On 1.20 2.1 4-1
6 6 Prince of Truth 10.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 I’m Solo N in Love 3.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Burn Notice 6.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Three Point Strut 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 2 Coquito 2.50 1 2-1
6 7 Equus 2.50 1.5 3-1
4 5 Kiss Me Hardy 3.00 4.1 8-1
1A 3 Roman Goddess 2.50 5.7 11-1
5 6 Trade Secret 20.00 5.8 11-1
2 1 Shezanarcticqueen 20.00 6.2 12-1
3 4 Toned Up 1.80 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Victory Ride S.) – Victory Ride S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Echo Sound 1.80 1 2-1
4 4 Indy Bay 1.60 2.3 4-1
2 2 Hollygrove 6.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Beauty Reigns 2.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Whatintheliteral 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Stirred Up 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Ragtime Sizzle 2.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Chocolatechocolate 3.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Going for Glory 12.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Candy Is Dandy 8.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Lady McSparkles 8.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Unwoke 5.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Aerialist 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Cdakhat (IRE) 10.00 1 2-1
7 7 Miss American Pie 4.00 1.2 2-1
1 1 Sassy Shenanigans 2.50 2.2 4-1
5 5 Last Mango 4.50 3 6-1
2 2 Moon Gate 5.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Royal Event 12.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Lollipops 8.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 She’s Complicated 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Dolce Vino 8.00 1 2-1
2 2 Iron Orchard 1.80 1 2-1
3 3 Birch Run 4.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Salt Princess 12.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Pan Pan 5.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Jenny Wade 15.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Probable Choice 20.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 Two by Two by Two 4.50 7.3 14-1
8 8 Winrooski 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Doctor Jeff 4.50 1 2-1
3 3 Chess Master 3.50 1.1 2-1
6 6 Maya Prince 4.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Heaven Street 15.00 2.7 5-1
9 9 Scheduling Dude 10.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Cloudy 5.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Fluid Situation 12.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Hilarious Affair 5.00 5.9 11-1
11 11 Gun It 2.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Fitzpatrick 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 It Can Be Done 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Dot’s Dollar 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Kunshan Bridge 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Wild Applause S.) – Wild Applause S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Classic Q 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Lavender Disaster 2.50 1.9 4-1
2 2 Love and Poetry 8.00 3 6-1
1 1 Fixin to Bee 8.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Play With Fire 1.80 3.4 6-1
4 4 Midway Memories 6.00 5 9-1
3 3 Especially 15.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Ruth 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Margin of Air 1.60 1 2-1
2 2 Swaggish 6.00 1.2 2-1
8 8 Sundaeswithsandy 3.50 1.9 4-1
4 4 Skylander 4.50 2.3 4-1
1 1 Fromanothamutha 4.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 He’s Got This 12.00 6.1 11-1
3 3 Wild Banker 30.00 7.5 14-1
6 6 Bad Larry 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 La Salvadorena 3.50 1 2-1
9 9 Lamorna 12.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Quiet Confidence 8.00 4.4 8-1
10 10 Tales of The Heart (IRE) 4.50 6.5 12-1
2 2 My Anticipation 12.00 6.8 13-1
6 6 You Decide 8.00 7.3 14-1
1 1 Beyond Lucky 6.00 7.3 14-1
8 8 Thiene (IRE) 10.00 8.6 16-1
7 7 Amazing Athena (IRE) 30.00 10.8 20-1
11 11 Tap It Up 30.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Leslie’s Humor 4.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Bourbon Serengeti 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Despo’s Dream 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Caribbean Wind 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Magnum’s Microbrst 8.00 1 2-1
5 5 Key Actress 5.00 1.2 2-1
3 3 Pionus 50.00 2.8 5-1
10 10 So Darn Pretty (IRE) 15.00 3 6-1
11 11 Home Wrecker 30.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Bint Al Dandy (IRE) 6.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Pinch of Bourbon 20.00 3.9 7-1
12 12 Mystic Sea 12.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Peak Hype 8.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Cliffs 4.50 5.6 11-1
4 4 Day Away 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Endorse 1.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Opera de Ravel (FR) 2.50 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.