Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, July 17, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Indy Magic 4.50 1 2-1
1A 7 Flat On 2.50 2.7 5-1
3 2 Glint 2.00 2.8 5-1
4 3 Az U Chase Me 6.00 3.3 6-1
5 4 Lou 3.50 3.5 7-1
1 6 Timaeus 2.50 SCRATCH
2 1 Bob John Ray 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Deemer 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Moe Eighty Eight 5.00 2.2 4-1
9 9 Annexperience 3.50 2.5 5-1
4 4 Spirit of the Law 3.00 2.8 5-1
2 1 Before the Wind 6.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Prince of Dance 10.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Coco Sun 30.00 5.8 11-1
1 2 Alfred Bellows 10.00 7.2 14-1
1A 10 Montosoli 10.00 7.4 14-1
7 7 God Given 12.00 7.5 14-1
10 11 Mission Hill 4.00 SCRATCH
11 12 Chris’s Song 2.50 SCRATCH
1X 13 Alzero 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Rick Violette S.) – Rick Violette S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Smooth Breeze 1.40 1 2-1
2 2 Sounds Like a Plan 4.50 1 2-1
5 5 Leon Blue 2.50 1.1 2-1
3 3 I’m Due 10.00 3 6-1
4 4 Outsource 4.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 River of Time 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Schlomo 1.20 1 2-1
6 6 Ride Up 3.50 1.4 3-1
2 2 Macaw 4.50 2.7 5-1
3 3 Shipman 6.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Masterwork 20.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Arcadian 6.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 King Moonracer 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Motel Patel 8.00 1 2-1
8 8 Fiddling Felix 2.50 1.9 3-1
2 2 Aerate 5.00 2 4-1
3 3 Tactical Trackstar 3.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Remember the Chief 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Carlin Contention 15.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Otto Nipoti 8.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Army Proud 4.50 SCRATCH
1 1 Nice Try Riley 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Bella Bello Banker 8.00 1 2-1
4 4 Trading Trouble 8.00 2.9 6-1
8 8 Chardonnay Derby 6.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Sacred Goddess 3.50 4.1 8-1
12 12 My Boston Beauty 15.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Rocket Robin 12.00 4.5 9-1
7 7 Charlottesuniverse 3.00 4.8 9-1
10 10 Ty Ty Rose 10.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Ticket to Ride 20.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Hanna’s Hideaway 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Big Heleonora 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Peace of Gold 15.00 SCRATCH
11 11 My Devine One 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Too B Wed 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Credit Risk 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Great Richie M 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Skylander 6.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Neuschwanstein 12.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Tetsu 6.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Blake B. 10.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 J J’s Joker 10.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Best Bet 12.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Midnight Trouble 20.00 5.5 10-1
9 9 Aztec 20.00 6.6 12-1
11 11 Beachwalker 8.00 7.6 14-1
10 10 Divine Leader 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Rocketeer 8.00 1 2-1
7 7 Lordship 8.00 1.2 2-1
3 3 Stars and Stripes 1.20 1.3 2-1
1 1 Waitlist 4.50 1.4 3-1
4 4 Leftembehind 15.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Tracking Error 10.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Dr. Kraft 4.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Frizzante 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Enlighten 1.60 1 2-1
2 1 Just for Luck 6.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Gem Mint Ten 4.50 4.9 9-1
8 8 Fredo 10.00 5.8 11-1
1 7 Brit’s Wit 6.00 6 11-1
10 10 Badge of War 10.00 6.1 12-1
6 5 Barnstorming 10.00 6.4 12-1
5 4 Life and Light 20.00 7.9 15-1
3 2 Final Denile 20.00 8 15-1
4 3 Java Buzz 20.00 8.1 15-1
1A 13 Hero’s Medal 6.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Swaggish 4.00 SCRATCH
11 11 House United 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Orie 2.50 1 2-1
11 11 Film Academy 3.00 1.1 2-1
12 12 Hello Newman 4.00 1.9 4-1
14 14 Out of the Fog 15.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Eighty Gold 8.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Desert Power 20.00 5 9-1
6 6 Viking Warrior 12.00 5.1 10-1
13 13 Nyikos 12.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Pazz the Soy Sauce 12.00 5.9 11-1
9 9 The Craftsman 15.00 6.9 13-1
8 8 Blame It On K J 15.00 8.1 15-1
5 5 Kimball Union 30.00 10.2 19-1
16 16 Oath of Omerta 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Mozambique 2.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Man From Malta 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Dead Aim 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.