Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, August 14, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Green Jobs 5.00 1 2-1
4 4 Raghba 4.50 1.8 3-1
3 3 Danzit 1.80 2 4-1
2 2 Bon Vivant 4.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Stone Cold Kelly 8.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Absolute Honor 3.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Confabulation 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 Riyadh Moon 8.00 1.1 2-1
6 6 Heavyweight Champs 6.00 1.2 2-1
2 2 Tizmarkus 3.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Golden Symphony 1.60 1.6 3-1
3 3 First Trumpet 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Cuando 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Our Starry Night 2.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 In the Dark 3.50 2.9 5-1
5 5 Leading Role 6.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Hellacious 4.50 4 7-1
7 7 Lough Currane 15.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Extraordinary One (GB) 20.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Dr. Insel 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Shifty Gold 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Bear Claw Necklace 4.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Ranger Battalion 3.50 2.4 4-1
1 1 Makes Sense 6.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Bob’s Carrot 4.50 3.2 6-1
6 6 Aero Star 6.00 4 7-1
3 3 Tactical Trackstar 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Still a Soldier 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Always Be Smart 8.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Gotta Guy 4.50 3.9 7-1
3 3 Dark Vector 4.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 True Connection 3.50 5.9 11-1
8 8 Ultimate Strike 8.00 6.6 12-1
5 5 Landauer 15.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 Burn Rubber 15.00 8.7 16-1
4 4 Dark Magic 12.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Augustinian 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 Throckmorton 4.50 4.3 8-1
2 2 Belgian 8.00 6.2 12-1
8 8 Silver Sniper 15.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Donegal Now 10.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Schwarzenegger 1.60 SCRATCH
13 13 Santina 4.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Green Screen 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Gypsy Art 10.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Go Grace Go 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 It’s Our Time 4.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Peace Negotiator 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Hawkeye State 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (New York Stallion Series S.) – New York Stallion Series S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 George Briggs 1.60 1 2-1
2 2 Buttah 12.00 4 8-1
4 4 River of Time 8.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 I’m Due 15.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Moe Eighty Eight 15.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Cast a Coin 30.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Coach Case 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Friend Ofthe Devil 1.40 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Stanley Cat 15.00 1 2-1
6 6 Levitating 5.00 1.1 2-1
1 1 Nantz 6.00 1.3 2-1
10 10 Preposition 4.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 Tomorrow’s Wish 8.00 1.9 3-1
2 2 Seeker’s Hope 15.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Nice Try Riley 12.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 Rock Concert 6.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Freedom Maker 3.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Grey Ace 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 3 Brit’s Wit 8.00 1 2-1
5 5 Final Denile 10.00 3 6-1
9 9 Hedge the Risk 6.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Fredo 8.00 SCRATCH
1A 12 Hero’s Medal 8.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Flat On 5.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Gem Mint Ten 12.00 SCRATCH
2 1 Heathguard 10.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Indy Magic 1.60 SCRATCH
3 2 Enlighten 1.80 SCRATCH
7 7 Steadfast Resolve 3.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Mo Kreesa 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Prince of Dance 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Mizty Fog 6.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Solomini’s Legacy 30.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Solo Dancing 12.00 5.6 11-1
12 12 Carlin Contention 6.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Blame It On K J 15.00 5.9 11-1
11 11 Yoheda Money Maker 30.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Uncle Barrie 50.00 7.4 14-1
2 2 Monomoys Partner 50.00 8.4 16-1
1 1 Wind Dancer 10.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Deemer 1.20 SCRATCH
7 7 Naguile 2.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Blue Pill 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.