Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, August 21, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Accelerated News 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Intentious 4.50 1.9 4-1
7 7 Grace and Grit 3.50 2.4 5-1
4 4 Crimson Queen 8.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 City Blocks 3.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Straca 6.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Farm House 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Optional Claiming) – Maiden Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Birch Run 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Mappy 12.00 1.7 3-1
8 8 St. Brigid’s Cross 6.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Two by Two by Two 8.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Taken by the Wind 12.00 4.5 8-1
6 6 Irtiqaa 4.50 4.6 9-1
10 10 Grand Luxx 8.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Athena’s Fury 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Flying Phoebe 20.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Dolce Vino 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Fleet Indian S.) – Fleet Indian S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Kay Cup 1.20 1 2-1
2 2 Vehemente 3.50 3 6-1
4 4 Lottie Margaret 2.50 3.8 7-1
1 1 Carmen’s Candy Jar 6.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Valtellina 5.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Coach Case 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Miztertonic 1.60 1.7 3-1
8 8 Ortus 6.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 New Matthew 8.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Mo Kreesa 8.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Outtawaterbury 8.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Golden Reign 30.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Aelfgar 12.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 The Craftsman 12.00 6.5 12-1
10 10 Senegal 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Optional Claiming) – Maiden Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Pan Pan 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 Fonzi Angel 10.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Seraphina Sea 10.00 4.6 9-1
11 11 Beach of Dreams 3.50 4.9 9-1
5 5 Caradise 15.00 5.5 10-1
10 10 River Empress 6.00 6.3 12-1
9 9 Smiling Rosie 12.00 7 13-1
8 8 Choppin Brockley 15.00 7.6 14-1
1 1 Makealittlelove 4.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Devilish Grin 3.00 SCRATCH
7 7 American Mink 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Jetty’s Home 3.50 1 2-1
13 13 Wander Woman 4.50 3 6-1
4 4 Sparkling Mama 6.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 Salt Princess 8.00 3.7 7-1
12 12 Looks to Kill 12.00 4.5 8-1
5 5 Always in Play 20.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Donna Romano 8.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Margarita Molly 15.00 7.3 14-1
6 6 Beside You 20.00 7.6 14-1
10 10 South Philly Slide 6.00 7.8 15-1
9 9 Riyah Al Nil 30.00 8.3 16-1
3 3 Brockley Drive 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 L’Eclair 10.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Clap Back 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Fast Market 6.00 1 2-1
12 12 Gin’s Beach Road 3.50 1.7 3-1
3 3 Shades of Jade 6.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Gellhorn 4.00 3.1 6-1
10 10 Sonja Henie 15.00 4 8-1
9 9 Marital Trust 30.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Truth and Beauty 15.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Get Back Loretta 15.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Justine 6.00 6.4 12-1
8 8 D J Jazzy (FR) 10.00 6.4 12-1
11 11 Dancing Girl 15.00 7.3 14-1
7 7 Sporting Lady 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Catherine Wheel 2.00 1 2-1
7 7 Cupid’s Heart 3.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Lemon Muffin 4.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Perfect Shot 5.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Khali Magic 6.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 Goodnightngodbless 20.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Braganza 12.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Just Music 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Albany S.) – Albany S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 King’s Leap 12.00 1 2-1
6 6 Hit the Post 4.50 1.6 3-1
4 4 Iron Dome 1.40 1.7 3-1
3 3 Sky Masterson 30.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Just Licorice 15.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Train the Trainer 1.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Garden of Grace 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 No Ordinary Love 2.50 1.9 4-1
8 8 Ultra Cameo 10.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 One Last Knock 5.00 2.4 4-1
6 6 Giuliana’s Dream 15.00 2.9 6-1
10 10 Aperitif 6.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Audemars 12.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Stormy Central 8.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Red Boots 15.00 7.3 14-1
1 1 Manhattan Beauty 15.00 7.6 14-1
11 11 Miss Im Pulsive 3.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.