Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, August 28, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Encantar 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 San Antonio Sara 4.50 1.4 3-1
9 9 Factory Setting 2.50 3.2 6-1
2 2 Amicus Curiae 6.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Quiddity 8.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Back to Khali 15.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Oh 5.00 4 8-1
3 3 Great Happenings 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Shayaprayer 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Cadenza 4.00 1 2-1
9 9 Vajra 3.50 1.3 2-1
2 2 Belarosa 20.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 One More Guitar 12.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Big Imagination (JPN) 6.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Bashful Baby 10.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Siouxse 8.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Mousseline 6.00 6 11-1
10 10 Market Hours 4.50 6.2 12-1
7 7 Sun Kiss 15.00 6.4 12-1
13 13 Free Spin Kim 30.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Rosie Dozie 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Immortal Poet (GB) 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Mo Go 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 The Boondocker 1.60 1.8 3-1
4 4 Mo for the King 8.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Shattuck 4.50 4 8-1
3 3 Blown Cover 5.00 4.5 9-1
8 8 Swift Magic 10.00 6.6 12-1
5 5 Enduring Spirit 15.00 7.8 15-1
6 6 Sobieski 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Kathynmarissa 1.80 1 2-1
4 3 American Sonja (GB) 2.00 2.3 4-1
3 2 Alluring Angel (GB) 10.00 3.3 6-1
8 7 Noir (FR) 4.00 4.3 8-1
7 6 Immensitude (FR) 6.00 4.3 8-1
2 1 Dona Clota (CHI) 8.00 5 9-1
6 5 Lady Firefoot 30.00 SCRATCH
1 8 Amanda’s Folly 1.60 SCRATCH
1A 10 Malu 1.60 SCRATCH
9 9 Standoutsensation 0.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Uncle Jim 8.00 1 2-1
7 7 Bear Claw Necklace 3.50 1.5 3-1
1 1 Bob’s Carrot 6.00 2 4-1
3 3 Hedge 4.50 2.3 4-1
6 6 Bye Bye Miles 2.50 2.9 5-1
8 8 Souper Tuscan 10.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Tactical Trackstar 4.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Oath of Omerta 30.00 8.7 16-1
5 5 Henry’s Hope 50.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Bouquetry 15.00 1 2-1
1 1 Lake Ariel 6.00 1.2 2-1
3 3 Clap Back 2.50 1.7 3-1
8 8 Magic in My Eyes 4.50 1.9 4-1
6 6 Rina’s Revenge 6.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Absolute Smoke 4.00 2.2 4-1
9 9 Princess Azara 20.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 R U Bluffing 8.00 2.5 5-1
10 10 Banco Di Sicilia 15.00 3 6-1
2 2 Into the Unknown 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (With Anticipation S.) – With Anticipation S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Capital Partner (GB) 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Strategic Risk 10.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Final Score 8.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Dr. Agne 3.50 3.1 6-1
7 7 Gloves Off 6.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Heeere’s Johnny 10.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 One More Freud 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Caroline St. Beat 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Johny’s Rendezvous 5.00 1 2-1
11 11 Dirand (IRE) 6.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Iron Sight 10.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 A Bourbon for Toby 3.50 3 6-1
4 4 Cromwell 10.00 3 6-1
7 7 Orgonite 6.00 3.4 7-1
13 13 Dragoneer 12.00 4.5 8-1
12 12 Mortal Lock 20.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Spun 20.00 5.2 10-1
14 14 Free Spin 15.00 7.3 14-1
6 6 Limo 12.00 7.8 15-1
5 5 Operation Overlord 12.00 8.6 16-1
8 8 Blast Furnace 10.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Salvation 4.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Disclaimer 10.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Fiscal Drag 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Reddington 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Bramito 6.00 1.3 2-1
7 7 Treaty Obligation 6.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 Winit 6.00 1.8 3-1
9 9 Twenty Four Mamba 2.50 2.1 4-1
3 3 Tahoe Sunrise 10.00 2.4 5-1
2 2 Ridgewood Runner 15.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Barksdale 8.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Unlimitedpotential 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Competitive Threat (IRE) 2.00 1 2-1
8 8 Life Advice 6.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Cynane 4.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Aviso 5.00 4 8-1
10 10 Quite Continental 12.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Urban Star 30.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Lotus Petal 12.00 5.5 10-1
11 11 Artistic Success 5.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Lady River Lily 30.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Widdershins 30.00 9 17-1
14 14 Kadena 3.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Saucy Six 50.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Boxed Wine 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Theprincessfactor 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Gypsy Dreaming 15.00 1 2-1
6 6 Lough Currane 15.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Sod Siren (FR) 5.00 2.4 4-1
4 4 Extraordinary One (GB) 12.00 2.5 5-1
11 11 Red Sea 10.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Repurpose (GB) 3.50 4.5 8-1
9 9 Chief No Nay (IRE) 4.50 4.9 9-1
8 8 Billy White Shoes (IRE) 4.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 In the Tank 10.00 SCRATCH
5 5 The Commish 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Oligarch 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.