Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, September 11, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Proven Hope 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Air of Defiance 2.50 1.3 2-1
4 4 Agent Creed 12.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Ember 12.00 1.9 4-1
9 9 Synthesis 4.50 3.8 7-1
1 1 Daddy Justify 5.00 3.9 7-1
12 12 Sittin On Go 12.00 5.4 10-1
10 10 Noahs Ark 30.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Mission Mike 15.00 5.8 11-1
11 11 Succession Gold 30.00 7.7 15-1
5 5 Paynter’s Canvas 20.00 8 15-1
8 8 Nikolaou 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Tis Charming 6.00 1 2-1
8 8 Ultimate Strike 2.50 1.6 3-1
3 3 Johnson 3.00 2 4-1
5 5 Romantic Lead 8.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Shortstop 15.00 3.2 6-1
9 9 Dancing Noah 8.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Enough Already 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Scuba 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Publicity 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Colonial Rose 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 She’s Not a Joke 4.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Colormecairo 8.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Miss Ellary 5.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Mad About Marie 6.00 6 11-1
5 5 Fourfiftyseven 20.00 6 11-1
1 1 Wits and Wagers 5.00 6.4 12-1
9 9 Rando 15.00 7 13-1
4 4 Lady Lala 6.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 On Time Girl 3.00 1 2-1
10 10 Tennessee Belle 1.20 1.1 2-1
3 3 Storm Cloud Rising 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Sugaree 15.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 Champagne Candice 8.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Tizianna 20.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Magic Seeker 20.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Boom Boom Bell 15.00 7 13-1
5 5 Cinnamon Sugar 10.00 7.2 14-1
6 6 Mia’s Go 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Oscar Season 5.00 1 2-1
4 4 Fidget 5.00 1.9 4-1
8 8 Depiction 3.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 English Chunnel 12.00 3.5 7-1
10 10 Theismann 12.00 4.5 8-1
6 6 Beyond Stoked 12.00 5.6 11-1
11 11 In a Jam 20.00 6.7 13-1
12 12 Ocean Pointe 20.00 6.9 13-1
9 9 Not Falling Back 12.00 7 13-1
3 3 Authentic Gallop 20.00 7.2 14-1
13 13 Bold Discovery 20.00 7.8 15-1
1 1 Money Supply 3.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Summer in Adriane 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Glam Slam 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Lil Tipsy 10.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Solemn Vow 4.00 3.9 7-1
11 11 Measure 8.00 6 11-1
10 10 Acquazurra 10.00 7.8 15-1
9 9 Sugar Doll 8.00 7.8 15-1
3 3 A Fine Chardonnay 15.00 8 15-1
12 12 Lady Revenge 10.00 8.7 16-1
7 7 Dancewhenyoucan 15.00 9.4 18-1
5 5 Legit Chick 20.00 9.8 19-1
8 8 Touch of an Angel 8.00 10.2 19-1
14 14 Bonne Sante 10.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Midnight Flight 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Of All Things 10.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Baracca 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Joke Maker 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Easy Red 5.00 1 2-1
7 7 Lady Moscato 10.00 5 9-1
3 3 Marmalade Skye 4.50 5.3 10-1
4 4 Fibber 4.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Jersey Pearl 8.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Legadema 5.00 6.6 12-1
10 10 Non Violence 20.00 8.2 15-1
6 6 Pistol 10.00 9.1 17-1
5 5 Tapit Quick 6.00 9.2 17-1
9 9 Copper Em 8.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 American Xperiment 4.50 1 2-1
2 2 Mumayaz 3.50 1.6 3-1
9 9 Top Gun Tommy 4.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Show Time 3.00 3 6-1
5 5 Lightning Struck 5.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Midnight Pranks 5.00 4 7-1
8 8 Pure Panic 5.00 4.2 8-1
10 10 Guanare 6.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Nabokov 12.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Princip 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.