Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, September 17, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Musical Prayer 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Brooklynn Drew 2.50 1.4 3-1
8 8 Misty Muppet 3.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Fancy Fascinator 6.00 5 9-1
4 4 Mink Stole 6.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Streaking 10.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Baytown Butterfly 12.00 7.6 14-1
6 6 Onmywaytosavthday 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Busk 1.00 1 2-1
4 4 Turn Up the Trees 3.50 2.7 5-1
8 8 Shape Note 3.00 4 8-1
7 7 Spycraft 10.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Mine Own Star 15.00 5 9-1
3 3 Sergeant Gump 30.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Ready to Roll 20.00 6.6 12-1
2 2 Mister Kelly 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Consequential 6.00 1 2-1
1 1 Federal Agent 3.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Tingus Pingus 3.50 2.3 4-1
4 4 Court of Appeal 5.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Bagg O Time 12.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Stolen Power 10.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Off the Deck 10.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Cosmic Collission 20.00 7.2 14-1
6 6 Trapped in Time (IRE) 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Saltwater Cowboy 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Master Game 6.00 1.4 3-1
11 11 Sir Saffer 4.50 1.6 3-1
3 3 The Thunderer 15.00 3.2 6-1
10 10 Critical Threat 10.00 3.7 7-1
9 9 Winston Wolf 10.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Alejandro 20.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Slip Mahoney 6.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Texas Red Hot 6.00 6 11-1
6 6 Synthesis 5.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Cool Rags 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Fade to Gold 3.00 1 2-1
11 11 Corbet’s Crush 4.50 1.6 3-1
6 6 Click 15.00 5 9-1
5 5 Sudden Squall 10.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Noroomformischief 3.50 5.2 10-1
9 9 Listentourmother 12.00 7 13-1
1 1 Scot’s Law 20.00 8.3 16-1
8 8 G Rocks 20.00 8.8 17-1
12 12 Lovely Summer 20.00 9.4 18-1
10 10 Trapped 30.00 9.8 18-1
2 2 Sacred Prayer 10.00 10.1 19-1
15 15 Statutory 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Supersonic Agenda 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Jetty’s Home 2.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Crevalla de Vil 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Curlin’s Gesture 4.50 1 2-1
5 5 Ravens Dream 6.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Remi’s Moon 4.00 2.4 4-1
4 4 Moral 5.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Uncle William 2.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Norwich 3.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Major Dax 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Stella Guitar 8.00 1 2-1
9 9 Hoops Rivalry 4.50 1.5 3-1
1 1 Grand Luxx 3.50 2 4-1
10 10 It Ain’t Like That 4.00 3.1 6-1
12 12 Endless Glory 10.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Happy Keira 12.00 8.4 16-1
4 4 Queen of Queens 20.00 8.5 16-1
6 6 Freaks Go 10.00 9.2 17-1
3 3 Mighty Nora 20.00 10.4 20-1
5 5 By La Rina 20.00 11.3 21-1
15 15 Lolly Poppin 5.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Sticker Shocked 12.00 SCRATCH
8 8 A P Sweetheart 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Sway House 3.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Smokin Hot Stuff 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Promises to Dance 6.00 1 2-1
9 9 De’ Ans Eighty 4.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Honey Hauler 20.00 2.2 4-1
8 8 Our Liberty Belle 3.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Gloriette 4.50 3.8 7-1
3 3 Outrageously 6.00 3.9 7-1
11 11 Sassy and Bold 10.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Chief Lady 15.00 5.1 10-1
10 10 Progeny 20.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 She’s No Angel 12.00 6.1 12-1
2 2 Mazoku 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Seven Taylors 8.00 1 2-1
3 3 Helm Place 6.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Steel Venom 4.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Cinister Cix 4.50 5.5 10-1
8 8 Harbe 5.00 6.2 12-1
11 11 Rich Vino 10.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 No Mor Stones 10.00 7 13-1
9 9 Penei 15.00 7.4 14-1
5 5 Ryu Mo 15.00 8.3 16-1
12 12 Primo Canary 20.00 9 17-1
1 1 Fine Vino 5.00 9.6 18-1
7 7 Southern Bullet 30.00 12 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.