Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, September 18, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Risk It 2.00 1 2-1
7 7 Vasa 2.50 1.3 3-1
4 4 Perfect Magic 8.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Countthebrave 5.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Redacted 12.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Timing Difference 4.00 6 11-1
5 5 Fully Volatile 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Altiplano 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Thunder Roll 5.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 Copp 2.50 1.4 3-1
8 8 Pirandello 6.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Courageous Clay 15.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Bestball 15.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Reveller’s Cheer 2.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 King Lee 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Zambezi 6.00 1 2-1
8 8 Gunner Bay 2.50 1.1 2-1
5 5 Bushido 6.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Can’t Hush This 4.50 1.9 4-1
6 6 Condemn 10.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Classic Legacy 4.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Archie the Giza 15.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Heart Headed 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Super Kick 8.00 1 2-1
3 3 Mo Beach Time 4.50 1.4 3-1
9 9 Thunder Murphy 6.00 1.6 3-1
7 7 Chatterfield 10.00 3 6-1
11 11 Maxxus 4.00 3.5 7-1
12 12 Project Ace 12.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Race Ready 6.00 7 13-1
2 2 Orville’s Map 12.00 8.1 15-1
1 1 Lex Go Honey 12.00 8.3 16-1
13 13 Crypto Cory 10.00 8.9 17-1
10 10 Thousand Spirits 10.00 9.5 18-1
5 5 Chayton 15.00 10 19-1
8 8 Kingofsomewherehot 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 No Bees 10.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Vino Subito 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Uncashed 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Payne 2.50 3.1 6-1
1 1 Chiseler 15.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Burninhunkoflove 4.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Global Sensation 6.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 American Law 12.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Mr. Melo 20.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Air Combat 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Kenz 1.40 1 2-1
6 6 Bourbon Notes 6.00 2.1 4-1
8 8 Bounce 6.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Amended Dreamer 6.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 No Time Left 15.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Dancin in Old Town 20.00 6.5 12-1
10 10 Supersonic Agenda 30.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Tiffany Cross 8.00 8.6 16-1
3 3 Statutory 8.00 8.7 16-1
7 7 Raspberry 8.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Sir Greylind 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Duke of Duval 12.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Stowaway 10.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Resilience 8.00 3 6-1
9 9 Money Supply 5.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Bernin Hot 3.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Winters Lion 30.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Mackman 15.00 SCRATCH
4 4 El Magnifico 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Faust 6.00 1 2-1
3 3 Map to the Stars 8.00 1.2 2-1
1 1 Mitty’s Griddy 4.00 2 4-1
10 10 Taylor’s Version 10.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Amor Patriae 2.50 3.8 7-1
12 12 Hymn 15.00 4.8 9-1
11 11 McDude 30.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 Mo Quality 4.50 7.2 14-1
8 8 Math Tutor 10.00 7.8 15-1
5 5 Goldentown 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Jack’s Promise 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Majority Opinion 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.