Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, September 20, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Alta Avenue 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 Lady Upstart 3.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Hit Parade 2.50 1.4 3-1
2 2 I’m a Little Crazy 8.00 2.4 4-1
1 1 Faye’s Gold 8.00 6 11-1
4 4 Beach of Dreams 3.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Stevie Chick’s 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Brave Blend 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 Big Salt Lick 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 Odorico 6.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Flyin Ryan 5.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Clear Echo 8.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 First Bid 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Rose Alabama 2.00 1 2-1
6 6 High Summer 15.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Mezcalifornia 2.50 4.3 8-1
3 3 Viral Plane Lady 6.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Miss Elle 8.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Catchyalater 15.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 True Princess 20.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Carolina Candy 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Kavod 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Deer District 2.50 2.7 5-1
5 5 Fort Sam 15.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Market Street 12.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Legalize 6.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Suncroft 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Track Mate 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Bohemian 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 Rain Gold 5.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Strada Del Sogno 6.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Maverick Queen 8.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 Tikihut 10.00 7.1 13-1
11 11 Mendelssohns Comet 15.00 7.8 15-1
13 13 Al Taraf 8.00 8.2 15-1
12 12 Kiss My Heart 20.00 8.3 16-1
10 10 Island Girl 20.00 8.9 17-1
7 7 Alas 15.00 9.3 18-1
6 6 R Bee Gee 15.00 9.4 18-1
14 14 Runway Rebel 12.00 10.3 20-1
8 8 American Tapit 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Minstrelly 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Secretly Delighted 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Shezafunkydrummer 8.00 1 2-1
3 3 Stilettos 2.50 1.9 4-1
4 4 Princess Proud 3.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Moon Mystique 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Hollygrove 6.00 4 8-1
7 7 Anakarina 20.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Impulse Buy 3.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Mila Rose 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Harrods Creek S.) – Harrods Creek S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Smoken Wicked 1.60 1 2-1
2 2 Semper Primus 4.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 U Devil You 6.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Jimmy’s Dailys 3.50 2.7 5-1
1 1 Optical 15.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Faster Gator 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Seneca Overnight S.) – Seneca Overnight S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Immersive 1.20 1 2-1
5 5 Liam in the Dust 6.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Quickick 2.50 3.7 7-1
3 3 Ivory and Ebony 8.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Flash Wear 12.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Decadent 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Next Up 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Dogwood S. Presented By Resolute Racing) – Dogwood S. Presented By Resolute Racing

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Ragtime 2.00 1 2-1
7 7 Delightful Claire 3.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Echo Sound 1.80 2.4 5-1
8 8 Mega Mil 20.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Sturgeon Moon 10.00 5.6 10-1
2 2 Gerlin’s Empire 20.00 6.1 12-1
5 5 Strong State 15.00 6.1 12-1
3 3 Kay Cup 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Bourbon Flight S.) – Bourbon Flight S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Chunk of Gold 1.60 1 2-1
2 2 Brotha Keny 6.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Run Quiet Run Fast 30.00 6 11-1
4 4 Hypnus 8.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Excite 5.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Admiral Dennis 2.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Whiskey Shot 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Just a Fair Shake 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Imminent Risk 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Nonconsecutivetrms 3.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Sister Troienne 8.00 4.1 8-1
13 13 Vanity 4.00 4.5 9-1
9 9 A. P.’s Girl 10.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Temple Goddess 8.00 6.4 12-1
8 8 Unlikely Queen 10.00 7.3 14-1
12 12 Starbrite Starlite 20.00 8.2 15-1
10 10 Rhapsody in Motion 12.00 8.6 16-1
4 4 Labile 12.00 9.3 18-1
1 1 Easter Promise 30.00 11.9 23-1
15 15 Sneakily 2.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Last Curtain Call 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 All About You 5.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Screeched In 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.