Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, September 21, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Catching Heat 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Bridgie Bop 3.50 2 4-1
6 6 Rocio 4.00 3 6-1
1 1 Starlit Sofi 5.00 5 9-1
3 3 My Little Wildcat 5.00 5 9-1
2 2 Yes to Champagne 6.00 7 13-1
7 7 Bisa 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Furious Anger 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Play the Trumpet 3.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Lunar Module 3.50 1.3 3-1
1 1 Bolt At Midnight 4.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Outlier 5.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 Macron 6.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Hocus 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Sgt. Garcia 3.00 1 2-1
13 13 State Conceal 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Election Night 3.50 1.2 2-1
8 8 Barstool 4.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 Just Like Max 5.00 2 4-1
4 4 Dr Fenn 12.00 5.3 10-1
10 10 Veneno Futuro 12.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 I Forgot to Ask 12.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 C. P. A. Jim 15.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 Tully 15.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Sparkling Speed 15.00 6.8 13-1
14 14 Secreto Uno 20.00 9.2 17-1
12 12 Two Seven O 20.00 9.2 17-1
6 6 Maximus C 30.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Like Water 3.50 1 2-1
10 10 Very Connected 4.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Thesheriffisnear 4.50 1.9 3-1
12 12 High Go 8.00 4.8 9-1
11 11 Tailored 8.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Good Willie 8.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Royal Causeway 10.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Khetam 12.00 8.2 16-1
8 8 Prince of Light 12.00 8.2 16-1
6 6 Mr. Vaggio 12.00 8.2 16-1
13 13 High Honors 15.00 10.8 20-1
14 14 Jaydeevee 15.00 10.8 20-1
1 1 Southern Soul 20.00 15 28-1
15 15 Durable 20.00 15 28-1
4 4 Swerve 20.00 15 28-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 King Peanut 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Explosively 3.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 Where’s Randy 3.50 1.6 3-1
5 5 Raising Kane 4.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Beck’s Spirit 10.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 God of Wine 12.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 El Cordobes 12.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Right On Right On 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Pointsetmatch 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Hard to Get 4.00 1.3 2-1
10 10 Rest of the World 4.50 1.6 3-1
4 4 Pour a Little More 5.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 Well Aware 5.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Ahamo 8.00 3.7 7-1
9 9 Adalene 15.00 8 15-1
11 11 Cloud Number Nine 15.00 8 15-1
5 5 Bonita Vida 15.00 8 15-1
8 8 She’s All Ellie 20.00 11 21-1
2 2 People Get Ready 20.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Evan On Earth 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Valiant Humor 3.50 1.3 3-1
1 1 Arthur Jr 4.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 White Whale 5.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Game and Smart 5.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Galantini 12.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 The Chalk 12.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Mashburn 15.00 5.1 10-1
10 10 Tap Me a Song 20.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 Just Call Rip 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Marmalade Skye 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 Hillerito 2.50 1.2 2-1
6 6 Princess Madison 3.50 1.7 3-1
3 3 Sam’s Treasure 4.50 2.2 4-1
1 1 Into Champagne 8.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Tripolina 12.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 High Fashion Kate 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Gardiner 3.00 1 2-1
11 11 Our Starry Night 3.50 1.3 2-1
4 4 Rowdy Riot 5.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Glacial Power 6.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Pharoah’s Dynasty 6.00 2.8 5-1
9 9 Miracle Worker 8.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 This Time 15.00 8.1 15-1
3 3 Mi Dinero 15.00 8.1 15-1
1 1 Wakan 15.00 8.1 15-1
10 10 Hard to Say 20.00 11 21-1
6 6 Oh Please 20.00 11 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.