Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, September 21, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Catching Heat 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Starlit Sofi 5.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Yes to Champagne 6.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Rocio 4.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Bisa 6.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 My Little Wildcat 5.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Bridgie Bop 3.50 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Lunar Module 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Furious Anger 2.50 1.1 2-1
6 6 Play the Trumpet 3.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Bolt At Midnight 4.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Macron 6.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Outlier 5.00 6.1 12-1
3 3 Hocus 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Sparkling Speed 15.00 1 2-1
11 11 Sgt. Garcia 3.00 2.2 4-1
9 9 Tully 15.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Barstool 4.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Dr Fenn 12.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 C. P. A. Jim 15.00 4.5 8-1
10 10 Veneno Futuro 12.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Election Night 3.50 4.6 9-1
7 7 Just Like Max 5.00 5.2 10-1
12 12 Two Seven O 20.00 7.5 14-1
3 3 I Forgot to Ask 12.00 8.1 15-1
6 6 Maximus C 30.00 10 19-1
13 13 State Conceal 3.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Secreto Uno 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Like Water 3.50 1 2-1
10 10 Very Connected 4.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Prince of Light 12.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Thesheriffisnear 4.50 4.2 8-1
6 6 Mr. Vaggio 12.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Khetam 12.00 5.2 10-1
11 11 Tailored 8.00 5.2 10-1
9 9 Royal Causeway 10.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Southern Soul 20.00 6.5 12-1
12 12 High Go 8.00 8.1 15-1
14 14 Jaydeevee 15.00 9.9 19-1
13 13 High Honors 15.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Good Willie 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Durable 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Swerve 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 King Peanut 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Explosively 3.00 1.1 2-1
7 7 Right On Right On 15.00 3 6-1
2 2 Where’s Randy 3.50 5 9-1
1 1 God of Wine 12.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Beck’s Spirit 10.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Raising Kane 4.00 6.9 13-1
8 8 El Cordobes 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Pointsetmatch 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Pour a Little More 5.00 3.3 6-1
10 10 Rest of the World 4.50 3.8 7-1
1 1 Hard to Get 4.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Bonita Vida 15.00 7.8 15-1
6 6 Ahamo 8.00 8.7 16-1
7 7 Well Aware 5.00 8.8 17-1
9 9 Adalene 15.00 8.9 17-1
8 8 She’s All Ellie 20.00 9.2 17-1
11 11 Cloud Number Nine 15.00 10.9 21-1
2 2 People Get Ready 20.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Evan On Earth 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 White Whale 5.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Valiant Humor 3.50 2.6 5-1
2 2 Mashburn 15.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Game and Smart 5.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 The Chalk 12.00 3 6-1
10 10 Tap Me a Song 20.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Galantini 12.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Arthur Jr 4.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Just Call Rip 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Hillerito 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Sam’s Treasure 4.50 1.3 3-1
6 6 Princess Madison 3.50 2.4 4-1
7 7 Tripolina 12.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Into Champagne 8.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Marmalade Skye 2.00 SCRATCH
2 2 High Fashion Kate 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Miracle Worker 8.00 1 2-1
7 7 Gardiner 3.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Glacial Power 6.00 1.5 3-1
4 4 Rowdy Riot 5.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Wakan 15.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Oh Please 20.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Mi Dinero 15.00 5.9 11-1
10 10 Hard to Say 20.00 6.1 12-1
8 8 This Time 15.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Pharoah’s Dynasty 6.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Our Starry Night 3.50 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.