Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, September 26, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Section 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Horse of the Sea 3.00 1.3 2-1
4 4 Western Warrior 3.50 1.6 3-1
7 7 Herbs Bolt 4.00 2 4-1
3 3 Hayes Goal 8.00 4.5 8-1
6 6 Coach Rudy 8.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Tisum 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Shipman 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Beezer 2.50 1.1 2-1
5 5 Vertrauen 3.00 1.3 2-1
4 4 Flotation Station 4.00 1.6 3-1
6 6 String Theory 5.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Summer in Aiken 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Mustang Lady 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Mombayla 3.00 1.3 2-1
6 6 Onmywaytosavthday 3.50 1.6 3-1
2 2 Animal Fries 4.00 2 4-1
5 5 Wild Acclaim 6.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Aggro 10.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Tiz Salty 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Maki Monarchy 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Message of Hope (IRE) 3.50 1.3 2-1
4 4 Dr. Saikali 4.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 Bon Temps 8.00 3.7 7-1
10 10 Liam’s Lagoon 8.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 Ice Wolf 10.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Ky Do Declare 10.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 City of Life 12.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Roc and Ready Jo 12.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Aubrey’s Max 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Ashes and Diamonds 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 Kissin Cash 2.50 1.4 3-1
6 6 Purple and Gold 3.50 2.1 4-1
1 1 Romanaya 6.00 4 8-1
3 3 Twisted Viper 8.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Volatile Jinny 10.00 7 13-1
2 2 It’s All Red 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Strong Destiny 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Sensing Flatter 3.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Sonhador 3.50 1.8 3-1
6 6 Absolute Honor 4.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Delicious Diva 8.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Crimsonite 8.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Whitethorn 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Stradale 1.60 1 2-1
11 11 Spirit of Royal 3.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Prime Suspect 3.50 2 4-1
2 2 Inordinary 4.00 2.3 4-1
16 16 Confessional 6.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Awesome Gun 8.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Our Moneyman 8.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Flash of Chaos 10.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Reckless 12.00 6.5 12-1
14 14 Rockies Balboa 12.00 6.5 12-1
10 10 Show Me the Munny 15.00 8.1 15-1
12 12 Tripp’s Promise 15.00 8.1 15-1
15 15 Steel Golden 15.00 8.1 15-1
6 6 Wood You Dare 15.00 8.1 15-1
7 7 Starmetal 30.00 16 30-1
9 9 Mister Landry 30.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Nudge 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 The Warden 3.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Escalation Clause 4.50 2 4-1
2 2 Fielding 5.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Baytown Bruiser 6.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Mega Magic 12.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Express Line 15.00 6.1 11-1
8 8 Lou’s Legacy 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 L. A. Woman 2.50 1 2-1
10 10 Sharp Smile 3.50 1.4 3-1
11 11 Bundle 4.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Low Key 5.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Claire’s Run 6.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Union Mist 8.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Classy’n Connected 10.00 4.3 8-1
9 9 Being Myself 10.00 4.3 8-1
12 12 Lobby Rendezvous 10.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Contrary 12.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Hidden Quarry 15.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Quinn’s Promise 30.00 13 25-1
2 2 Grayleigh 30.00 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Trusty Troutman 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 Spying 2.50 1.3 2-1
2 2 Malibu Smart 3.00 1.5 3-1
8 8 Take Charge Omaha 8.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Sunset Beauty 10.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Vino Tiempo 10.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Faire Plaisir 15.00 8 15-1
1 1 Asian Matriarch 15.00 8 15-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.