Belmont At The Big A Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, October 4, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Here’syourtrouble 0.00 1 2-1
4 4 Laughing Lady 0.00 1 2-1
8 8 Sabby Sunset 0.00 1 2-1
6 6 Sheer Will 0.00 1 2-1
5 5 Stormy Central 0.00 1 2-1
3 3 Gracie Girl 0.00 1 2-1
1 1 Alyvia Mavis 0.00 1 2-1
7 7 Katie King 0.00 1 2-1
9 9 Snide 0.00 1 2-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Discovery S.) – Discovery S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Rated by Merit 0.00 1 2-1
5 5 Light Forever 0.00 1 2-1
2 2 Uncaged 0.00 1 2-1
1 1 Wise Up 0.00 1 2-1
4 4 Dreambuilder 0.00 1 2-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Sittin Chilly 0.00 1 2-1
6 6 Golden Plate 0.00 1 2-1
1 1 Smilensaycheese 0.00 1 2-1
5 5 Henry’s Hope 0.00 1 2-1
7 7 Booted Up 0.00 1 2-1
4 4 Leading Role 0.00 1 2-1
8 8 Zakat 0.00 1 2-1
3 3 Tapwrits Temper 0.00 1 2-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Jockey Club Derby Invitational S.) – Jockey Club Derby Invitational S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Noble Confessor 0.00 1 2-1
3 3 Crudo 0.00 1 2-1
7 7 Game Warrior 0.00 1 2-1
5 5 Hammerhead 0.00 1 2-1
1 1 A Bourbon for Toby 0.00 1 2-1
4 4 Hill Road 0.00 1 2-1
2 2 Asbury Park (GB) 0.00 1 2-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Optional Claiming) – Maiden Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Irtiqaa 0.00 1 2-1
10 10 River Empress 0.00 1 2-1
5 5 Rose Lisa 0.00 1 2-1
13 13 Probable Choice 0.00 1 2-1
9 9 Pan Pan 0.00 1 2-1
12 12 Smiling Rosie 0.00 1 2-1
14 14 Salt Princess 0.00 1 2-1
4 4 Karey 0.00 1 2-1
7 7 Mappy 0.00 1 2-1
8 8 Princess Celine 0.00 1 2-1
16 16 Hidden Rose 0.00 1 2-1
6 6 Last Call Jenna 0.00 1 2-1
3 3 Devilish Grin 0.00 1 2-1
2 2 Sparkling Mama 0.00 1 2-1
15 15 Great Actress 0.00 1 2-1
11 11 Defining Role 0.00 1 2-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Frizette S.) – Frizette S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Five Bars 0.00 1 2-1
4 4 Rina’s Revenge 0.00 1 2-1
2 2 Carmel Coast 0.00 1 2-1
11 11 Lovely Christina 0.00 1 2-1
6 6 Iron Orchard 0.00 1 2-1
1 1 Jetty’s Home 0.00 1 2-1
3 3 Rileytole 0.00 1 2-1
10 10 Steer Clear 0.00 1 2-1
7 7 Chopsticks 0.00 1 2-1
8 8 Icecreamforevryone 0.00 1 2-1
5 5 Secane 0.00 1 2-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Champagne S.) – Champagne S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Napoleon Solo 0.00 1 2-1
2 2 Stradale 0.00 1 2-1
4 4 Aye Eye 0.00 1 2-1
1 1 Curtain Call 0.00 1 2-1
9 9 Talkin 0.00 1 2-1
7 7 Stickupwithoutagun 0.00 1 2-1
3 3 Universe 0.00 1 2-1
6 6 It’s Our Time 0.00 1 2-1
5 5 Just Asap 0.00 1 2-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Miss Grillo S.) – Miss Grillo S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Believe in Magic 0.00 1 2-1
1 1 Cara’s Dreamchaser 0.00 1 2-1
6 6 Rose Room 0.00 1 2-1
10 10 Miss Picky 0.00 1 2-1
8 8 Boomington 0.00 1 2-1
13 13 Dyna 0.00 1 2-1
7 7 El Barrio 0.00 1 2-1
3 3 Ground Support 0.00 1 2-1
9 9 Deep Learning 0.00 1 2-1
2 2 Day to Day 0.00 1 2-1
4 4 Miss Call 0.00 1 2-1
12 12 Quiet Street 0.00 1 2-1
14 14 Caradise 0.00 1 2-1
11 11 Fille d’Oro (IRE) 0.00 1 2-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Nothing Better 0.00 1 2-1
1 1 Step Forward 0.00 1 2-1
3 3 Big Invasion 0.00 1 2-1
6 6 Waralo 0.00 1 2-1
8 8 Gaslight Dancer 0.00 1 2-1
5 5 Twisted Filigree 0.00 1 2-1
9 9 Bonus Move 0.00 1 2-1
4 4 Boltage 0.00 1 2-1
2 2 Alder 0.00 1 2-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Active Measures 0.00 1 2-1
8 8 My World 0.00 1 2-1
3 3 Twenty Two Black 0.00 1 2-1
1 1 Dark Assault 0.00 1 2-1
7 7 Double Act 0.00 1 2-1
4 4 Nearly 0.00 1 2-1
2 2 Concrete Bolt 0.00 1 2-1
5 5 Introubleagain 0.00 1 2-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Brit’s Wit 0.00 1 2-1
8 8 King d’Oro 0.00 1 2-1
10 10 Main Beach 0.00 1 2-1
15 15 Get a Job 0.00 1 2-1
11 11 Starship Titan 0.00 1 2-1
9 9 Pass the Hat 0.00 1 2-1
7 7 Glint 0.00 1 2-1
1 1 Cuando 0.00 1 2-1
2 2 Middle Market 0.00 1 2-1
16 16 Buttah 0.00 1 2-1
13 13 V Cruizer 0.00 1 2-1
12 12 Filoso 0.00 1 2-1
14 14 Georgia Magic 0.00 1 2-1
3 3 Risk Tolerance (IRE) 0.00 1 2-1
5 5 Irish Gent (IRE) 0.00 1 2-1
6 6 Elbaz (FR) 0.00 1 2-1

RACE NUMBER 12 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Racing Colors 0.00 1 2-1
9 9 Hola Gata 0.00 1 2-1
10 10 Wrigleyville 0.00 1 2-1
12 12 Purloin 0.00 1 2-1
8 8 Bobby Jean 0.00 1 2-1
13 13 Fortuna Mia 0.00 1 2-1
3 3 Layered 0.00 1 2-1
7 7 Luckforyou 0.00 1 2-1
11 11 Peak Hype 0.00 1 2-1
5 5 Victoriously 0.00 1 2-1
1 1 Obeissante 0.00 1 2-1
2 2 So Darn Pretty (IRE) 0.00 1 2-1
4 4 Phoenix of Wit (IRE) 0.00 1 2-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.