Belmont At The Big A Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, October 4, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Sheer Will 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Laughing Lady 3.50 2.1 4-1
2 2 Here’syourtrouble 6.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Sabby Sunset 12.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Katie King 8.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Stormy Central 12.00 7 13-1
3 3 Gracie Girl 20.00 7.1 13-1
1 1 Alyvia Mavis 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Snide 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Discovery S.) – Discovery S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Rated by Merit 0.40 1 2-1
2 2 Uncaged 3.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Wise Up 4.50 3.9 7-1
4 4 Dreambuilder 15.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Light Forever 15.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Sittin Chilly 10.00 1 2-1
4 4 Leading Role 3.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Booted Up 4.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Smilensaycheese 3.50 3.1 6-1
6 6 Golden Plate 3.50 3.3 6-1
3 3 Tapwrits Temper 5.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Henry’s Hope 20.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Zakat 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Jockey Club Derby Invitational S.) – Jockey Club Derby Invitational S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Hill Road 1.40 1 2-1
6 6 Noble Confessor 8.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Crudo 4.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Game Warrior 8.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Asbury Park (GB) 2.50 5.2 10-1
1 1 A Bourbon for Toby 15.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Hammerhead 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Optional Claiming) – Maiden Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Devilish Grin 2.50 1 2-1
9 9 Pan Pan 4.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Sparkling Mama 12.00 4.2 8-1
10 10 River Empress 8.00 4.3 8-1
14 14 Salt Princess 10.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Rose Lisa 10.00 7.8 15-1
8 8 Princess Celine 12.00 9 17-1
4 4 Karey 15.00 9.3 17-1
1 1 Irtiqaa 10.00 9.3 18-1
11 11 Defining Role 5.00 10 19-1
12 12 Smiling Rosie 30.00 10.4 20-1
6 6 Last Call Jenna 15.00 10.4 20-1
13 13 Probable Choice 30.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Mappy 30.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Hidden Rose 3.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Great Actress 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Frizette S.) – Frizette S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Iron Orchard 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Chopsticks 8.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Rileytole 30.00 3.9 7-1
10 10 Steer Clear 8.00 3.9 7-1
11 11 Lovely Christina 8.00 4 8-1
2 2 Carmel Coast 3.50 5.6 11-1
1 1 Jetty’s Home 30.00 5.6 11-1
9 9 Five Bars 5.00 7.7 15-1
8 8 Icecreamforevryone 12.00 8.2 16-1
4 4 Rina’s Revenge 15.00 9 17-1
5 5 Secane 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Champagne S.) – Champagne S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Curtain Call 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 Just Asap 12.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Aye Eye 15.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Stradale 8.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 It’s Our Time 1.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Napoleon Solo 8.00 7.7 15-1
9 9 Talkin 5.00 8 15-1
7 7 Stickupwithoutagun 30.00 8.7 16-1
3 3 Universe 12.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Miss Grillo S.) – Miss Grillo S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Deep Learning 2.50 1 2-1
12 12 Quiet Street 3.50 1.7 3-1
2 2 Day to Day 20.00 2.1 4-1
10 10 Miss Picky 6.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Believe in Magic 15.00 3.7 7-1
13 13 Dyna 10.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Ground Support 12.00 6.3 12-1
11 11 Fille d’Oro (IRE) 5.00 7.7 15-1
7 7 El Barrio 15.00 8.1 15-1
1 1 Cara’s Dreamchaser 30.00 8.1 15-1
8 8 Boomington 15.00 8.7 16-1
6 6 Rose Room 10.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Miss Call 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Caradise 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Big Invasion 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Waralo 3.00 2 4-1
5 5 Twisted Filigree 6.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Alder 8.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Step Forward 6.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Boltage 12.00 5.3 10-1
9 9 Bonus Move 8.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Gaslight Dancer 12.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Nothing Better 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 My World 1.80 1 2-1
7 7 Double Act 4.50 2.5 5-1
5 5 Introubleagain 15.00 3.4 7-1
1 1 Dark Assault 6.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Twenty Two Black 5.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Active Measures 6.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Concrete Bolt 10.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Nearly 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Risk Tolerance (IRE) 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Irish Gent (IRE) 3.50 3.2 6-1
9 9 Pass the Hat 8.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 King d’Oro 8.00 4.9 9-1
10 10 Main Beach 4.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Brit’s Wit 20.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Cuando 5.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Elbaz (FR) 12.00 6.9 13-1
7 7 Glint 50.00 9.2 17-1
2 2 Middle Market 30.00 9.4 18-1
11 11 Starship Titan 20.00 9.9 19-1
15 15 Get a Job 6.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Buttah 2.50 SCRATCH
13 13 V Cruizer 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Filoso 4.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Georgia Magic 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 12 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Layered 8.00 1 2-1
10 10 Wrigleyville 3.50 1.7 3-1
1 1 Obeissante 5.00 3.8 7-1
11 11 Peak Hype 2.50 4.1 8-1
2 2 So Darn Pretty (IRE) 12.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Hola Gata 15.00 6 11-1
4 4 Phoenix of Wit (IRE) 6.00 6.6 12-1
5 5 Victoriously 8.00 7.4 14-1
7 7 Luckforyou 50.00 7.6 14-1
6 6 Racing Colors 50.00 8.2 16-1
12 12 Purloin 4.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Bobby Jean 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Fortuna Mia 5.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.