Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, October 5, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 J Rivers 1.80 1 2-1
2 2 Just an Opinion 3.00 1.1 2-1
8 8 Red Rose Rockin 15.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Jackie’s Love 12.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Tartaria 20.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Yuma’s Shadow 4.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Rocio 10.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 St. Albans Raid 6.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Big Dig 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 P. O. S. H. Posh 8.00 1 2-1
4 4 Zoomaha 4.50 1.2 2-1
1 1 Silvertown 6.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Mamarsha 15.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Rotisserie 15.00 5 9-1
7 7 Whiskey Business 20.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Miss Mo Magic 5.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Veronicaforthewin 20.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Warm Up the Bus 6.00 6.1 12-1
14 14 What’s Up Dog 3.50 6.9 13-1
11 11 A Little Patience 20.00 7.2 14-1
2 2 Tizzlin 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Lady Ashanta 30.00 SCRATCH
12 12 G Rocks 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Waves of Mischief 1.80 1 2-1
8 8 Sudden Switch 5.00 1.2 2-1
6 6 Flash Wear 6.00 3 6-1
1 1 Sultry Lass 3.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Tapit Quick 4.50 4.5 9-1
5 5 Xtreme Smoke Show 20.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Costa Amalfitana 12.00 7.2 14-1
4 4 Sweet Alyssa 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Patrol Squad Six 3.00 1 2-1
9 9 High Honors 15.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Drop Shot 4.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Apollo’s Glory 20.00 3.7 7-1
11 11 Eva Ready 6.00 4 7-1
2 2 Time for Money 20.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Versailles Road 8.00 5.6 10-1
4 4 Gotcha 10.00 7.4 14-1
1 1 Lemon’s Law 15.00 7.7 15-1
12 12 Tribalism (IRE) 5.00 8.2 16-1
8 8 Graceful Standard 20.00 8.5 16-1
10 10 David’s Kitten 20.00 8.6 16-1
13 13 Thousandsticks 5.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Kid Charlemagne 4.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Epic Horsepower 6.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Clark’s Corner 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Buckeye Favorite 12.00 1 2-1
3 3 Llamp 8.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Elite 4.00 4.2 8-1
11 11 Acquazurra 15.00 6.1 11-1
8 8 Bella Ballerina 2.50 8.5 16-1
1 1 Jolly Jolene 10.00 8.6 16-1
4 4 Debbie Doll 5.00 8.9 17-1
6 6 Determined Ace 6.00 9.1 17-1
5 5 Berlinwin 20.00 9.2 17-1
2 2 Completely Elegant 15.00 10.4 20-1
10 10 Karma Wins 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Dreamaway 4.50 1 2-1
3 3 Civetta 8.00 2 4-1
12 12 Rich City Girl 8.00 2.1 4-1
9 9 Proud Starlet 4.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Kuwaitya (IRE) 5.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Noquestionaboutit 8.00 3.7 7-1
11 11 Brindi (IRE) 10.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Grade A 12.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Multiplication 15.00 5 10-1
1 1 Justinqueso 12.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Stormy Paradise 30.00 9.9 19-1
10 10 G W’s Girl 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Ninth Island 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Allison Avenue 6.00 1 2-1
1 1 Cat Spring 12.00 3.5 7-1
9 9 Betty’s Pearl 8.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Lockdownyourtown 15.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Sneaky Good 3.00 4.2 8-1
11 11 Holly Hetty 5.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Raging Current 8.00 4.6 9-1
10 10 Red Raze 15.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Rift 15.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Paige Turner 4.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Chiquita’s Way 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Indian Summer S. Presented By Keeneland Select) – Indian Summer S. Presented By Keeneland Select

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Trendsetter 20.00 1 2-1
5 5 Obliteration 4.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 Bobrovsky 2.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Zeus’s Echo 20.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Schwarzenegger 3.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Rogue Legend (GB) 8.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Uncle Bucky 30.00 6 11-1
9 9 Azizam (GB) 6.00 6.1 11-1
8 8 Twilight Delight 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Juddmonte Spinster S.) – Juddmonte Spinster S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Thorpedo Anna 1.60 1 2-1
2 2 Scylla 4.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Nitrogen 2.50 2.1 4-1
4 4 Gin Gin 6.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Chilled 30.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Castle & Key Bourbon S.) – Castle & Key Bourbon S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Final Score 1.60 1 2-1
7 7 Awesome Connection 12.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 J J Grey 20.00 3 6-1
12 12 Dr. Agne 12.00 3.7 7-1
9 9 Password 20.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Repentless 12.00 4.8 9-1
11 11 Casa Cielo 8.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Turf Star 15.00 6.9 13-1
10 10 Vintur 6.00 7.3 14-1
4 4 Exonerate 4.50 7.5 14-1
5 5 Blinging It Back 20.00 7.9 15-1
8 8 Gordon Pass 30.00 12 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.