Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, October 9, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Mercilesanihilator 6.00 1 2-1
2 2 Compressed 4.50 2 4-1
4 4 Smols 20.00 2.4 5-1
8 8 Maker and Sons 3.50 2.5 5-1
3 3 Cuzin Roscoe 20.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 American Bear 30.00 7.2 14-1
5 5 Just Like Max 4.00 SCRATCH
1 1 After Party 2.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Fistfulofmoney 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Alias 4.50 1 2-1
7 7 Don’t Ghost Me 1.60 1.9 4-1
9 9 Coffee Talk 3.50 2.2 4-1
5 5 Fracture 6.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Nash Potatoes 30.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Texas Splurge 20.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Cadeland 8.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Just Call Rip 20.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Super Ms 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Jubilant Joanie 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Motown Dynamic 1.40 1.7 3-1
7 7 Little Blaze 10.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 Sassy and Bold 6.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Adiva 8.00 7.1 13-1
5 5 Divine Gal 12.00 7.3 14-1
2 2 Smart With Heart 20.00 7.8 15-1
3 3 Scoot Along 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Twolatebabydoll (FR) 4.00 1 2-1
10 10 Weighted Average 1.60 3.5 7-1
8 8 Caviar Breakfast 6.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Oraia 20.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Miss Pharaoh 20.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Don’t Look Now 8.00 6.1 12-1
12 12 El Zain 12.00 7.4 14-1
11 11 Playa Azul 20.00 7.7 14-1
4 4 Roiling 30.00 7.9 15-1
6 6 Queen Dancing (GB) 12.00 8.2 15-1
9 9 Click Here 15.00 8.8 17-1
13 13 Eenymeanymightymo 20.00 9.5 18-1
14 14 Abundant Love 4.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Perfect Union 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 High Breeze (FR) 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 American Debutante (IRE) 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Lady Faye 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Golexgo 8.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 My Secret Dreams 6.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Authentic Angel 15.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Ranting and Raving 4.50 3.1 6-1
4 4 Tia Lupe 20.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 I Mean Business 20.00 5.6 11-1
10 10 Woodruff 8.00 5.6 11-1
9 9 Beach of Dreams 2.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Annabelle B 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Litigation 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Operation Sunrise 2.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Cheval de Guerre 8.00 3 6-1
2 2 Big Boat 12.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Warheart 10.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Can’t Deny It 4.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Mischief River 4.50 6.1 12-1
3 3 Jet Sweep Joe 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Kayla’s Komet 1.60 1 2-1
2 2 Melody Maker 5.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 Sea Zest 8.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Alas 20.00 3.1 6-1
9 9 Measure 4.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Atropa 10.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Midnight Flight 20.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Taylor Time 6.00 4.5 8-1
6 6 Bisclavret 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Malleymoo 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Cima de Areco (ARG) 2.50 1.7 3-1
3 3 Reagan’s Flame 4.50 2.1 4-1
11 11 Cairo Street 10.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Make the Boys Wink 20.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Maxisuperfly 30.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Partir (FR) 12.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Cheetah Lady 6.00 5 9-1
10 10 Queen Judith 20.00 6.1 12-1
12 12 Musical Note 30.00 7.9 15-1
9 9 Stephanieswarrior 20.00 9 17-1
16 16 Bijou Baby 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Johanny 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Ask Amanda 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Foreseen 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 No No No Never (IRE) 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Pursuitneversleeps 3.50 1 2-1
8 8 G T Five Hundred 8.00 3.3 6-1
13 13 Terrapin Station 20.00 3.9 7-1
11 11 Voila Magic 5.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Be You 10.00 4.6 9-1
12 12 Tre Italiani 6.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Rule Sixty Two 30.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Amor Patriae 12.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Multiverse 4.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Mo Quality 15.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Stiglets 20.00 7.3 14-1
14 14 Busk 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Hymn 10.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Dreaminblue 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Musical Prayer 8.00 1 2-1
11 11 Ride the Broom 4.50 2 4-1
4 4 Hand It Over 4.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Fancy Fascinator 12.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 My Little Wildcat 8.00 5.3 10-1
10 10 Bridgie Bop 20.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 I Am Beautiful 20.00 5.6 11-1
12 12 Sweet Star 6.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Baytown Butterfly 8.00 6.9 13-1
3 3 McKinzie Magic 6.00 7.7 15-1
5 5 Echo Road 20.00 8.5 16-1
1 1 B D’s Angel 20.00 9.3 18-1
15 15 Miss American Pie 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 My Kathryn Rose 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Likely Perspective (IRE) 3.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.