Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, October 12, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Asian Matriarch 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Story Hour 4.50 2.7 5-1
8 8 Sweet Chablis 6.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Thestral 6.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Sunny Isle Beach 12.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Dark Dahlia 4.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Up On the Edge 3.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Crushed Ice 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Wexford One 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Vasy (IRE) 4.50 2.5 5-1
11 11 Sun Chaser 12.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Brosnan 8.00 4 8-1
9 9 Frontier Justice 20.00 4.9 9-1
10 10 Elston Gunnn 8.00 6.5 12-1
4 4 Thailand 3.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Because of Love 30.00 7 13-1
12 12 Third Pick 30.00 7.5 14-1
2 2 Penn Star 30.00 7.6 14-1
8 8 Shipmate 15.00 7.9 15-1
13 13 El Halcon 50.00 8.5 16-1
6 6 Kilby Girl 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Noahs Pride 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Harrodsburg 1.00 1 2-1
2 2 Implementation 1.60 1.4 3-1
1 1 Track Mate 4.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Lofty Adjudicator 15.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Gold Luck 12.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Sir Wellington 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Windy Walk 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 De’ Ans Eighty 6.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Gloriette 4.50 3.6 7-1
6 6 Mercy Warren 1.40 3.8 7-1
5 5 Commanded 8.00 4 8-1
7 7 Abitibi 10.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Ask Amanda 30.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Tiffany Twist 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 El Rezeen 1.80 1 2-1
5 5 Common Defense 4.00 1.7 3-1
12 12 Crystal Quest 4.50 2.8 5-1
4 4 Presider 15.00 2.9 5-1
7 7 Bail Us Out 8.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Mutaawid 10.00 4.3 8-1
11 11 Goes the Clown 15.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Factor Analysis 30.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Daunt 20.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 Big to Do 30.00 6.9 13-1
10 10 Calycanthus 20.00 7.2 14-1
8 8 Not Falling Back 20.00 8.7 16-1
15 15 King Curlin 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Archie the Giza 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Mount Rundle 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Taverna 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Cut to the Chase 2.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Contemplate 6.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Existence 30.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 Wicked One 8.00 6.5 12-1
3 3 Shesa Cherry 8.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 Hissyfitter 15.00 7.7 15-1
2 2 American Pearl 3.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Franklin S.) – Franklin S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Pipsy (IRE) 5.00 1 2-1
7 7 Luna Louska 3.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 In Our Time 8.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Time to Dazzle 6.00 3 6-1
8 8 Cart Girl Sam 20.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Won Happy Mama 30.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Pondering 10.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Future Is Now 1.40 SCRATCH
3 3 Lady Crush 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 One Cool Dude 8.00 1 2-1
6 6 Lightning Struck 8.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Background 10.00 3.1 6-1
11 11 Mucho Mojo 6.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Gluckstadt 15.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Sutherland 6.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Denington 12.00 5.8 11-1
13 13 J J’s Joker 10.00 6 11-1
1 1 Hometown Hero 30.00 8.6 16-1
8 8 Lend It Tewmey 3.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Overbore 30.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Xander 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Guanare 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Cowboy Roy 6.00 1 2-1
4 4 Cynical Humor 4.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Bluegrass Town 6.00 2.3 4-1
13 13 Alpyland 6.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Grace Met Cupid 15.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Spirit of a Walkon 6.00 4.5 8-1
10 10 No Joke Joe 12.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Road Trippin 20.00 7.3 14-1
12 12 Chasing Freedom 8.00 7.7 15-1
9 9 Emiliano 30.00 8 15-1
8 8 Midshakin 20.00 8.2 16-1
11 11 Ruler of the Skies 30.00 8.6 16-1
14 14 Green Screen 4.00 SCRATCH
3 3 She’s On a Roll 3.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Election Night 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.