Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, October 16, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Mila Rose 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Mo for Us 6.00 4 8-1
1 1 She’s No Angel 8.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Mezcalifornia 4.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Black Ginger 12.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Mascara 10.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Blue Squall 15.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Shezafunkydrummer 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Thousand M P H 8.00 1 2-1
14 14 Wanna Go Home 15.00 2.9 5-1
12 12 Matty’s Baby 2.00 3.5 7-1
11 11 Loving Mischief 4.00 4 8-1
7 7 Wrong Shoes 20.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Nonstop Vino 30.00 4.5 9-1
10 10 Topic Thunder 4.50 5 9-1
5 5 Lel Ditty 30.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Sacred Prayer 10.00 6 11-1
8 8 Wind Sand Stars 30.00 7.5 14-1
2 2 Crown of Violence 30.00 7.8 15-1
13 13 Run Mama Run 10.00 SCRATCH
6 6 News Too Serious 30.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Tizzlin 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Christy 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Lovely Summer 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Confessional 12.00 1 2-1
5 5 Albus 6.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Our Forefathers 4.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Colossus 5.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Corona de Oro 15.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Bye Bye Brady 8.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Mimicry 12.00 6.6 12-1
9 9 Into the Beast 2.50 7.6 14-1
8 8 Mister Landry 20.00 8.5 16-1
3 3 Meanstepper 20.00 9.9 19-1
11 11 Grand Slam Sam 15.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Comes a Time 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Floodlites 8.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Bourbon’s Fault 6.00 2.5 5-1
10 10 Perfect Magic 15.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Matt’s Luck 20.00 4 8-1
7 7 Baytown Bruiser 4.50 4 8-1
9 9 Evan On Earth 12.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Sinister Smile 3.50 6.2 12-1
3 3 Malibrew 20.00 7.2 14-1
8 8 Riddle Solver 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Attersee 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Our Starry Night 8.00 1 2-1
14 14 Amoudi Bay 20.00 2.1 4-1
12 12 Confront 2.50 4.3 8-1
4 4 Pharoah’s Dynasty 20.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Brie’s in Town 20.00 7.5 14-1
2 2 Beer Run 4.50 7.6 14-1
3 3 Glacial Power 15.00 8.1 15-1
7 7 Miracle Worker 8.00 8.4 16-1
1 1 Its Bourbon Thirty 8.00 8.9 17-1
11 11 Vesture 4.00 9.3 18-1
5 5 Math Tutor 30.00 9.8 18-1
8 8 Hard to Say 30.00 11.3 21-1
16 16 Happy Cat 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Rowdy Riot 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Bunratty Manor (IRE) 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Hit That Review (IRE) 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Circle Tap 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Fuzzbuster 8.00 1.1 2-1
1 1 Thunder Buck 8.00 2.7 5-1
10 10 Liberty National 15.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Dr. Kapur 2.50 3.3 6-1
2 2 Chip Honcho 4.50 3.6 7-1
5 5 Flaming Rainbow 20.00 4 8-1
4 4 Sure to Appeal 15.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Rochester 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Talmadge 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Lighter 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Army Officer 4.00 1 2-1
8 8 Winnemac Avenue 10.00 1.2 2-1
3 3 Gasoline 8.00 1.9 4-1
11 11 National Eclipse 20.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Resilience 3.00 3.1 6-1
12 12 Society Man 8.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Mackman 8.00 5 9-1
1 1 Pappy’s Revenge 30.00 5 9-1
4 4 Stowaway 6.00 5.9 11-1
10 10 Unload 15.00 6.3 12-1
9 9 Speed Bias 12.00 7.9 15-1
6 6 Archie the Giza 20.00 8.4 16-1
13 13 Groveland 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Proctor Street 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 For Flying (BRZ) 8.00 2.5 5-1
11 11 Public Defender 10.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 She’s Lookin Lucky 4.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Strikingly Spun 12.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Smiling Ellie 20.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 A Lilac Rolla (IRE) 3.50 6.4 12-1
10 10 Scarlet Sands 30.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Nanabush (ARG) 10.00 7.4 14-1
12 12 Watch This Birdie 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Breezing Along 30.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Floating Beauty 50.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Split Success 10.00 1 2-1
10 10 Golden Irish 1.60 1.7 3-1
1 1 In Awe of Juju 15.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 J Rivers 12.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 Dozen Diamonds 4.50 3.5 7-1
7 7 Grace On Grace 30.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Tizntshelovely 6.00 6.6 13-1
11 11 She’s Not a Joke 20.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Dark Fury 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Truthorconsequence 12.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Rando 30.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Eskenforaraise 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.