Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Friday, October 17, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Our Shenanigan 1.20 1 2-1
5 5 Nana Grace 4.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Perfect Union 6.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Army Nurse 8.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Lady Pippa 30.00 6.5 12-1
6 6 Dani Girl 8.00 7.5 14-1
4 4 Her Town 15.00 7.8 15-1
2 2 Hampton’s Affair 5.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Iron Sharpens Iron 1.40 1 2-1
6 6 Itsinmyblood 4.50 1.4 3-1
2 2 Magic Mover 6.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Schifty’s Haloid 4.00 2.2 4-1
8 8 Look to the Cross 8.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Jr’s Gift 20.00 5.6 10-1
3 3 Daryl’s Bolt 12.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Vino Couragio 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Plaza Cue 1.40 1 2-1
2 2 Scooch Over 3.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 Glamorama 6.00 3.2 6-1
9 9 Senora d’Oro 8.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Lilium 20.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Classy Beach 4.50 4.6 9-1
4 4 Willowy 30.00 5 9-1
8 8 Queen of Spirits 30.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Ashes and Diamonds 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Miss Soothsayer 4.50 1 2-1
4 4 Cardiff Reef 4.00 1.2 2-1
2 2 Lion Lake (IRE) 2.50 2.2 4-1
10 10 Mamarsha 15.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Lost Chord 20.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Dafina 8.00 5 10-1
6 6 Chasing Sunsets 8.00 5.8 11-1
9 9 Ocala Gala 8.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Beach Heist 6.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 La Monarca 50.00 7.2 14-1
11 11 Kilby Girl 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Tempers Fly 4.00 1 2-1
11 11 Atlantic Passage 10.00 1.3 3-1
10 10 Romantic Dancer 3.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Tiz Purple 10.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Misty Muppet 8.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Who’s Madie 20.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Myiyla 8.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Likely Perspective (IRE) 6.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Bright Lady Day 50.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Star Watch 30.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Bold Boss 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Carlisle Bay 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Late to the Game 20.00 1 2-1
2 2 Chaching Chaching 1.50 1.1 2-1
6 6 Truthorconsequence 6.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 Viggiedal 10.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Miss Elle 4.50 2.1 4-1
9 9 Sweet Bebsi 12.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Army Girl 15.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 American Women 8.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Tre Dita 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 She’s On a Roll 3.00 1 2-1
9 9 Paris Twilight 1.40 2.1 4-1
7 7 Epic Lady Luck 3.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Riotous 12.00 3.6 7-1
10 10 Listentourmother 30.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Lit Up 6.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Got Gone 15.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 I B Flyin 10.00 6 11-1
6 6 Modern Escape 20.00 6.1 12-1
8 8 Victor Valley 30.00 7 13-1
3 3 Runs On Dreams 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Absolute Honor 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Indict 8.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Delicious Diva 4.50 1.8 3-1
6 6 Bodacious Beauty 20.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Jewel Box 15.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 Aeolian 6.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Clairita 10.00 4 7-1
7 7 Endorse 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Attache 4.50 1 2-1
3 3 Bergen 3.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Frosty View 4.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Monsieur Candy 12.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Jakajaro (IRE) 10.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Smokey Smokey 8.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Slider 15.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Test Factor 10.00 4.2 8-1
9 9 Surf City 15.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Butch’s Best 6.00 5.6 11-1
11 11 Chromed Impulse 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Scotty’s On Edge 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Suited and Booted 6.00 1 2-1
10 10 Incursion 3.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Nation 6.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Master Mule 12.00 4.3 8-1
11 11 Explosively 6.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Good Lord 4.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Okie Clipper 30.00 5.8 11-1
12 12 Chado 8.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Tejas 15.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Tiverton (GB) 20.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 Mendello 30.00 8.4 16-1
4 4 Redacted 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.