Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, October 19, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 C F V Bullet 1.60 1 2-1
6 6 Ember 8.00 1.6 3-1
5 5 Tres Soles 4.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Interlock Empire 6.00 1.7 3-1
10 10 Critical Threat 10.00 2.4 4-1
4 4 Ardanwood 15.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 The Thunderer 12.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 Liam the Brave 15.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Moon Charger 50.00 8.5 16-1
1 1 Carillo 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Country Club 4.50 1 2-1
12 12 Well Aware 15.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Canterbury Lane 5.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Sevenon 12.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 People Get Ready 15.00 3.6 7-1
11 11 Rest of the World 8.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Smokin Hot Wife 3.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 My Favorite Girl 30.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Justtakethecannoli 6.00 4.8 9-1
13 13 Zen Dreams 10.00 5.3 10-1
10 10 Pickleball Queen 20.00 6.1 12-1
14 14 Zettie 20.00 7.1 13-1
7 7 Betty Who 30.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Twisted Viper 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Peach Tie 4.50 1 2-1
7 7 Scot’s Law 5.00 2 4-1
9 9 Valala 8.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Sugaree 3.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 L’Eclair 4.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Have Faith 8.00 4 8-1
3 3 Wickedwithbourbon 12.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Starlit Nite 6.00 6.1 11-1
2 2 Victor Help Me 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Thebabeslayer 4.50 1 2-1
10 10 Final War 8.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Prince of Light 3.00 5.3 10-1
13 13 Clark’s Corner 4.00 5.4 10-1
11 11 Timestream 15.00 6.1 12-1
14 14 Kilo Tango 2.50 7.5 14-1
4 4 Muir Woods 6.00 8.1 15-1
5 5 Exosome 20.00 9 17-1
3 3 Rippin 20.00 9.6 18-1
6 6 Sun Dodger 15.00 9.7 18-1
7 7 Khetam 12.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Turbo Launch 6.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Shuggy 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Telecaster 20.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Mr. Vaggio 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Wargamer (IRE) 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 My Noble Knight 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Mister Muldoon 20.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Hey Boss 8.00 4.2 8-1
11 11 Huge Bigly 15.00 4.6 9-1
14 14 Dr. Storm 12.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Hoodlum 5.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Shot of Courage 12.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Swaggish 6.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Twirling Troillet 8.00 5.5 10-1
15 15 Category Ten 30.00 6.1 12-1
10 10 People Force 30.00 6.2 12-1
12 12 Money Run 3.50 7.5 14-1
13 13 Lemon Drop Shot 20.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Hard Rye Guy 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Greers Ferry 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Sweet Kaufy 4.50 1 2-1
9 9 Pretty Layla 20.00 1.4 3-1
12 12 Niki Nine Doors 6.00 1.4 3-1
6 6 Big Trouble 1.80 2 4-1
11 11 Velvet Devil 6.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Don’t Say It 4.50 2.9 6-1
2 2 Into Champagne 15.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Hideki 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Princess Bettina 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Dala 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Caberneigh 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Dancing Magic 30.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Stormy Paradise 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Excite 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Sun Thunder 15.00 1.3 2-1
3 3 Fountain Lake 4.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Pagode 8.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Only in America 3.50 2 4-1
7 7 Racing Driver 10.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 New Magic 10.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Run Quiet Run Fast 20.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Energize 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Rood & Riddle Dowager S.) – Rood & Riddle Dowager S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Duvet Day (IRE) 4.50 1 2-1
6 6 Vive Veuve 3.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Spanish Eyes (GER) 4.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Venencia (FR) 6.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 Miwa (GB) 4.50 5.4 10-1
7 7 Cupids Crush 20.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Bless My Stars (SAF) 8.00 8 15-1
5 5 Adrasteia 8.00 8.4 16-1
1 1 Boss Lady Bailey 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Our Moneyman 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 Trouble Calling 3.50 2.7 5-1
6 6 McFasty 10.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Mom’s Spaghetti 30.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Archimedes 8.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Coming Soon 4.50 6.3 12-1
12 12 Somethingdangerous 6.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 Lay Down the Law 15.00 6.9 13-1
11 11 Task Force O 12.00 7 13-1
4 4 Ilios 8.00 7.1 13-1
10 10 Impractical 20.00 8 15-1
2 2 Associated 15.00 8.1 15-1
14 14 Election Night 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Smell of Money 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.