Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, October 29, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Motown Dynamic 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Outrageously 4.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Devil Pays in Gold 2.50 3.3 6-1
2 2 Little Blaze 15.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Adiva 15.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Divine Gal 8.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 St. Albans Raid 3.50 5.8 11-1
6 6 Kanjeng 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Bushido 6.00 1 2-1
3 3 Augusta Melody 2.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 Big Effect 2.50 1.7 3-1
6 6 Young Squire 6.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Save the Trees 5.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Bebedouro 8.00 6 11-1
2 2 Five o’ Somewhere 12.00 7.3 14-1
5 5 Halloween 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Magnificent Rags 5.00 1 2-1
4 4 Beck’s Dreamer 4.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Lebombo 3.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Come to Papa 3.50 2.3 4-1
10 10 Mo Town Jazz 20.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Gobekli 30.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Ice Shot 5.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 My King Air 6.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Berniedott 20.00 6.3 12-1
9 9 Open Court 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Masteroffoxhounds 6.00 1 2-1
7 7 Pancake House 2.50 3.1 6-1
6 6 Two Beers by Ten 6.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Man in the Can 15.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 What’s Up Doc 15.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 American Law 15.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 Bolt At Midnight 20.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 Accredit 12.00 SCRATCH
3 3 What Say Thee 1.60 SCRATCH
1 1 Ocean Pointe 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Versed 4.50 1 2-1
4 4 Caprio 6.00 2.4 4-1
9 9 C. P. A. Jim 10.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Psalmist 1.80 4.3 8-1
10 10 Barstool 10.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Tisum 6.00 4.8 9-1
12 12 Third Pick 15.00 8.6 16-1
7 7 Bagg O Time 15.00 9.8 19-1
5 5 Hey Batter Batter 30.00 10.4 20-1
6 6 Homepage 30.00 11.5 22-1
3 3 Baal 12.00 11.6 22-1
2 2 Brock’s Boy 12.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Aggro 6.00 1 2-1
2 2 J Rivers 4.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Mad About Marie 3.50 2.8 5-1
9 9 Curls Nite Out 6.00 4.7 9-1
10 10 Sensible Choice 12.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Wits and Wagers 6.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Rando 12.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Curlin’s Magic 10.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Bump in the Night 20.00 6.2 12-1
8 8 Jackie’s Love 12.00 6.4 12-1
11 11 Fasta Lavista Baby 15.00 7.2 14-1
4 4 Nursekringledances 12.00 9.2 17-1
13 13 Ce La Vi Charli 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Tims 12.00 1 2-1
7 7 Fatguyinlittlecoat 3.50 1.2 2-1
5 5 Race Ready 3.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Props 10.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Turnback 12.00 3 6-1
2 2 Gnome 12.00 3.6 7-1
10 10 Chayton 6.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Maxxus 12.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Big Apple Patrick 15.00 6.4 12-1
8 8 Survivin’onaprayer 20.00 8 15-1
11 11 Patriot Moon 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Curvino 6.00 1 2-1
10 10 Mary’s Boy Bolt 3.50 2.2 4-1
11 11 Anglican 8.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Stonemont Reunion 12.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Expect the Best 4.50 3.1 6-1
7 7 Governing Party 4.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Publicity 15.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Trojan Pride 15.00 9.5 18-1
12 12 Greers Ferry 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Special Justice 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Rulookinforrayray 12.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Devil Anse 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Foie Gras 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Palm Desert 12.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Hey Olivia 15.00 5 10-1
4 4 Gridlock 4.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Reliable Lady 3.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Gerlin’s Empire 3.50 6.1 11-1
6 6 Going Steady 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Highway Patrol 4.00 1 2-1
2 2 Restless Renegade 3.00 1.2 2-1
11 11 Sand Street 12.00 1.4 3-1
9 9 Prince Day 6.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Wobbegong 8.00 3.2 6-1
12 12 Mr Entertainer 12.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 J David 10.00 4 8-1
13 13 Big Rog 15.00 4 8-1
5 5 City of Life 30.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Kick It In 30.00 6.6 12-1
4 4 Warlord 3.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Major League 15.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Saint Shance 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Come On Pop 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.