Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, October 30, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Mo Hope 1.80 1 2-1
5 5 Explosively 2.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Hey Buddy 4.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Where’s Randy 10.00 5 9-1
4 4 Noble Gentleman 6.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Pierce Elevated 15.00 6.9 13-1
2 2 El Cordobes 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Reign Champagne 4.00 1 2-1
8 8 Ride the Broom 15.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Sister Carlie 2.50 2.5 5-1
4 4 Parking Lot Pours 8.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Mizmalice 6.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Mustang Lady 3.00 3 6-1
6 6 Tanganyika 20.00 4 8-1
1 1 Fearless Lady 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Original Sin 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Sixtyseven Mustang 5.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Penalty Box 2.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 The Exodus Twist 6.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Nomolimbo 30.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Torre Eiffel 20.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Bold Strength 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Princess Celine 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Midnight Flight 10.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Shidoni 3.00 2.4 4-1
9 9 Authentic Angel 6.00 3.1 6-1
10 10 My Secret Dreams 6.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Mamarsha 12.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Broadway Musical 10.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 I Mean Business 15.00 7.6 14-1
11 11 Gold Lady 15.00 8.9 17-1
8 8 Topic Thunder 12.00 10.8 20-1
5 5 No Argument 20.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Campaign Promises 2.00 1 2-1
9 9 Coastline Hottie 20.00 3.4 7-1
4 4 Tartaria 10.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Wonder of You 8.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Spotaway 10.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Starcourt 15.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Crackle 12.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Elliott Moon 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Brooklynn Drew 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Aspenite 12.00 1 2-1
12 12 Princetown 4.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Groveland 20.00 5.2 10-1
13 13 The Process 10.00 5.7 11-1
10 10 Sardis 10.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Just a Fair Shake 20.00 7.9 15-1
2 2 Secret Chat 30.00 9.1 17-1
7 7 Laugh a Lot 15.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Dunedin 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Out of Deductions 3.50 SCRATCH
11 11 Depiction 4.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Cameo Performance 3.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Innately Good 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Risk It 5.00 1 2-1
6 6 Map to the Stars 8.00 1.3 2-1
1 1 Northern Chill 3.50 2.4 4-1
10 10 Subito 3.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Hymn 4.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Obelisk 20.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Dreaminblue 10.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 B Sudd 12.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Nicholai 20.00 9 17-1
9 9 Jack’s Promise 12.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Full Screen 4.50 1 2-1
8 8 Bendoog 3.00 1.1 2-1
3 3 Woodcourt 8.00 2 4-1
9 9 Gun Party 3.50 2.1 4-1
4 4 Implementation 5.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Multitask 6.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Money Supply 15.00 4.5 8-1
10 10 Caramel Chip 15.00 6.1 11-1
2 2 Three Technique 20.00 7.3 14-1
6 6 Trademark 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Aviso 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Lady Lilylou 6.00 2.7 5-1
12 12 My Sexy Blonde 5.00 3.7 7-1
14 14 Derry Girl 6.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Hold My Halo 10.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Evelyn Louise 4.50 4.7 9-1
1 1 Freak City 10.00 7.9 15-1
13 13 Malibu Smart 4.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Call Me Toni 15.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Vee’s Reason 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Taco Cat Backwards 30.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Rightinthatwrong 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Drama Speaker 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Asteria 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Sheila’s Lion 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Romany Road 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Smokin Hot Wife 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Formaggio 4.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Alongcomesawoman 2.50 3.1 6-1
2 2 Cloud Number Nine 15.00 3.4 7-1
3 3 Dynamite 12.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Bold Baby Tender 15.00 6.1 11-1
9 9 Action Player 30.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Belongtothenavy 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Suitefourfourthree 3.50 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.