Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, November 1, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Dark Fury 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 Colormecairo 3.50 1.5 3-1
2 2 Beach Bunny 4.50 2.7 5-1
4 4 Feasible 3.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Ce La Vi Charli 8.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Lookatmybuckle 10.00 6 11-1
6 6 Daring Hope 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Sirius Light 3.50 1 2-1
9 9 Starlit Sofi 8.00 1.6 3-1
6 6 Streaking 3.00 2 4-1
5 5 Going Streakin 10.00 3 6-1
2 2 Yes to Champagne 10.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 B D’s Angel 8.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Bridgie Bop 8.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Star Watch 20.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Gold Del Mar 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Can’t Hush This 1.80 1 2-1
1 1 Two Eagles River 3.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Thoughtthatcounts 2.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Mr Skylight 12.00 3 6-1
5 5 Gold Luck 4.50 3.7 7-1
3 3 Viking 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Debbie Doll 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Tizmatic 3.50 2.9 5-1
3 3 Grazie Prego 5.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 No Time Left 8.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Bet the Gray 4.50 4.8 9-1
9 9 Shot At Perfection 12.00 4.9 9-1
10 10 Tennis Bracelet 8.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Dream From Within 15.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Warm Up the Bus 12.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Glazin’ Fury 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Long Neck Paula 3.00 1 2-1
9 9 Civetta 5.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Kuwaitya (IRE) 3.50 2.4 4-1
11 11 Multiplication 15.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Grade A 10.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Shezafunkydrummer 20.00 4.9 9-1
10 10 Justinqueso 15.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Me Governor 4.00 5 9-1
12 12 She’s Got Will 20.00 6.6 12-1
1 1 Princess Proud 12.00 6.9 13-1
5 5 Anakarina 12.00 7.9 15-1
3 3 Lady Crush 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Tagermeen 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Commandment 1.80 2.8 5-1
1 1 One Reward 6.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Twenty Two Black 10.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Show Me the Munny 20.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Brave Force 12.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Blue Mountains 10.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 Centerline 12.00 7.6 14-1
2 2 Redemption Hour 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Bet On Sunshine S.) – Bet On Sunshine S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Glengarry 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Roll On Big Joe 2.50 2.8 5-1
3 3 Surveillance 3.00 2.9 5-1
4 4 Champlin 5.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Durante 3.50 5.7 11-1
1 1 Ajaayb 12.00 6.4 12-1
7 7 Mondogetsbuckets 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Caviar Breakfast 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Hear the Queen 2.50 1.1 2-1
11 11 Celtic Charm 6.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 El Joury 15.00 4.2 8-1
10 10 Malibu Smart 20.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Love Song 3.50 6.9 13-1
7 7 Faire Plaisir 20.00 7 13-1
3 3 Bijou Baby 20.00 7 13-1
8 8 Birkin Girl 20.00 8.2 16-1
6 6 Meg’s a Star 12.00 8.3 16-1
13 13 Calmate 15.00 9.8 18-1
16 16 Kittens Stormy Gal 20.00 12.4 23-1
12 12 Heart Spin 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Faith Understood 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Feeling Beachy 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Annelle 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Silvertown 4.00 1 2-1
2 2 Diva Calling 4.50 2.3 4-1
11 11 Desperate Dreams 5.00 4.3 8-1
10 10 G Rocks 10.00 5.7 11-1
12 12 What’s Up Dog 5.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Lel Ditty 15.00 7 13-1
13 13 Lolly Poppin 20.00 7.4 14-1
6 6 Brunia 15.00 7.4 14-1
7 7 Zen Yoga 12.00 8.5 16-1
5 5 Traject 8.00 9.4 18-1
4 4 Honorisia 12.00 10.6 20-1
3 3 Rotisserie 20.00 11.8 22-1
14 14 Pushing Through 10.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Maddie’s Garden 10.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Don’tmindifido 3.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Lady Upstart 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Nine Ball 4.50 1 2-1
6 6 Cabourg 3.50 1.4 3-1
7 7 Oscar’s Hope 1.60 1.6 3-1
5 5 Way Beyond 6.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Zeus’s Echo 4.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 Sometime 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Tobin Lee 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Feeling Grand 12.00 1 2-1
13 13 Dawn Dragon 10.00 1.5 3-1
9 9 Western Run 3.00 1.6 3-1
6 6 Founders 3.50 3.6 7-1
10 10 Jujubee 30.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Mr Bobo 8.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Ice Wolf 15.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Rapoport 2.50 5 9-1
12 12 My Father’s Place 30.00 7.3 14-1
11 11 Our Sliceof Heaven 30.00 7.8 15-1
3 3 Theodore George 15.00 8.7 16-1
1 1 Two Dollar Bill 12.00 9.6 18-1
15 15 Marshal 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Crazy Diamond 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Dune a Vetta 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.