Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, November 1, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Dark Fury 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Feasible 3.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Colormecairo 3.50 1.7 3-1
2 2 Beach Bunny 4.50 2.2 4-1
5 5 Ce La Vi Charli 8.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Lookatmybuckle 10.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Daring Hope 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Streaking 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Sirius Light 3.50 1.2 2-1
3 3 Gold Del Mar 4.00 1.5 3-1
9 9 Starlit Sofi 8.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 B D’s Angel 8.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Bridgie Bop 8.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Yes to Champagne 10.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Going Streakin 10.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Star Watch 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Can’t Hush This 1.80 1 2-1
4 4 Thoughtthatcounts 2.00 1.1 2-1
1 1 Two Eagles River 3.00 1.6 3-1
5 5 Gold Luck 4.50 2.3 4-1
6 6 Mr Skylight 12.00 6 11-1
3 3 Viking 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Debbie Doll 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Tizmatic 3.50 1.4 3-1
8 8 Bet the Gray 4.50 2.1 4-1
3 3 Grazie Prego 5.00 2.5 5-1
10 10 Tennis Bracelet 8.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 No Time Left 8.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Shot At Perfection 12.00 7.8 15-1
6 6 Warm Up the Bus 12.00 7.8 15-1
1 1 Glazin’ Fury 15.00 10 19-1
4 4 Dream From Within 15.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Long Neck Paula 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Kuwaitya (IRE) 3.50 1.2 2-1
7 7 Me Governor 4.00 1.4 3-1
9 9 Civetta 5.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Grade A 10.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Anakarina 12.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Princess Proud 12.00 4.7 9-1
11 11 Multiplication 15.00 5.9 11-1
10 10 Justinqueso 15.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Shezafunkydrummer 20.00 7.9 15-1
12 12 She’s Got Will 20.00 7.9 15-1
3 3 Lady Crush 30.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Commandment 1.80 1 2-1
9 9 Tagermeen 2.00 1.1 2-1
1 1 One Reward 6.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Twenty Two Black 10.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Blue Mountains 10.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Centerline 12.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Brave Force 12.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Redemption Hour 15.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Show Me the Munny 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Bet On Sunshine S.) – Bet On Sunshine S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Roll On Big Joe 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Surveillance 3.00 1.2 2-1
6 6 Durante 3.50 1.5 3-1
2 2 Glengarry 4.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Champlin 5.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Ajaayb 12.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Mondogetsbuckets 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Hear the Queen 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Love Song 3.50 1.9 4-1
9 9 Caviar Breakfast 4.50 2.7 5-1
11 11 Celtic Charm 6.00 4 8-1
5 5 Annelle 6.00 4 8-1
15 15 Feeling Beachy 8.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Meg’s a Star 12.00 9.1 17-1
14 14 Faith Understood 15.00 11.7 22-1
2 2 El Joury 15.00 11.7 22-1
13 13 Calmate 15.00 11.7 22-1
10 10 Malibu Smart 20.00 16 30-1
3 3 Bijou Baby 20.00 16 30-1
12 12 Heart Spin 20.00 16 30-1
7 7 Faire Plaisir 20.00 16 30-1
8 8 Birkin Girl 20.00 16 30-1
16 16 Kittens Stormy Gal 20.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
16 16 Don’tmindifido 3.00 1 2-1
9 9 Silvertown 4.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Diva Calling 4.50 2.3 4-1
12 12 What’s Up Dog 5.00 2.8 5-1
11 11 Desperate Dreams 5.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Traject 8.00 5.4 10-1
15 15 Lady Upstart 8.00 5.4 10-1
14 14 Pushing Through 10.00 7.2 14-1
1 1 Maddie’s Garden 10.00 7.2 14-1
10 10 G Rocks 10.00 7.2 14-1
4 4 Honorisia 12.00 8.9 17-1
7 7 Zen Yoga 12.00 8.9 17-1
8 8 Lel Ditty 15.00 11.6 22-1
6 6 Brunia 15.00 11.6 22-1
13 13 Lolly Poppin 20.00 16 30-1
3 3 Rotisserie 20.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Oscar’s Hope 1.60 1 2-1
6 6 Cabourg 3.50 2.1 4-1
3 3 Zeus’s Echo 4.00 2.4 4-1
4 4 Nine Ball 4.50 2.7 5-1
5 5 Way Beyond 6.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Sometime 12.00 7 13-1
2 2 Tobin Lee 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Rapoport 2.50 1 2-1
9 9 Western Run 3.00 1.3 2-1
6 6 Founders 3.50 1.5 3-1
7 7 Mr Bobo 8.00 3.8 7-1
13 13 Dawn Dragon 10.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Two Dollar Bill 12.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Feeling Grand 12.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Ice Wolf 15.00 7.4 14-1
15 15 Marshal 15.00 7.4 14-1
3 3 Theodore George 15.00 7.4 14-1
5 5 Crazy Diamond 15.00 7.4 14-1
12 12 My Father’s Place 30.00 15 28-1
10 10 Jujubee 30.00 15 28-1
11 11 Our Sliceof Heaven 30.00 15 28-1
14 14 Dune a Vetta 30.00 15 28-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.