Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, November 2, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Wanna Go Home 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Bective Abbey 3.00 1.2 2-1
1 1 Nonstop Vino 10.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Oaks Street 4.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Kitten Gloves 2.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 La Presumida 15.00 6.9 13-1
7 7 Lovely Summer 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Seal Bay 1.20 1 2-1
1 1 Consequential 3.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Gosh Sakes 8.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Federal Agent 10.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Herbs Bolt 3.50 5.6 11-1
3 3 Hot Ice 10.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 One Tough Road 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Attersee 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Brave Blend 3.50 1.8 3-1
2 2 Linebacker 2.50 4.1 8-1
1 1 Il Cavallino 6.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 South Bend Tom 3.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 You Belong Here 5.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 The Chalk 4.00 1 2-1
9 9 Where Y’at 4.50 3.3 6-1
2 2 Midnight Vengeance 5.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Aerate 6.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Papa Alden 15.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Wartank 8.00 3.9 7-1
10 10 Free Advice 8.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Aubrey’s Max 20.00 7.1 13-1
11 11 Ando 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Just Call Rip 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 The Reinbow Factor 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Weighted Average 1.40 1 2-1
4 4 McKinzie’s Glory 8.00 1.6 3-1
6 6 Emmy Blue 12.00 2.9 5-1
7 7 El Zain 30.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 You’re So Vain 6.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Somerville 12.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Smokin Hot Blonde 30.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Rodina 12.00 5 9-1
11 11 Poverty With Aview 20.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Pollinator 15.00 7.4 14-1
10 10 The Palace Girl (GER) 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Tis Charming 5.00 1 2-1
5 5 Purse Thief 4.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Farm Team 2.50 4 8-1
8 8 Wind Rider 8.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Total Heart 8.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Atlantic Dancer 3.00 6.6 13-1
9 9 Midnight Boss 15.00 7 13-1
4 4 Cannon 12.00 8.5 16-1
7 7 Clear Echo 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Agua Fresca 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Ashkenazi 6.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Call Me Angel 5.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Little Sam’s 15.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Glancing My Way 8.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Dos Amores 20.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Chiquita’s Way 30.00 8.4 16-1
1 1 Ohoopee 2.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Aye Bay Bay 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Maui Strong 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Ambition 20.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Montador 3.00 2.8 5-1
9 9 Fredo 20.00 2.9 5-1
7 7 Blast Furnace 4.50 4.2 8-1
12 12 Johny’s Rendezvous 6.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Show of Force 15.00 4.6 9-1
11 11 Maximum Promise 15.00 4.9 9-1
10 10 Global Asset 5.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Fort Thomas 20.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Wakan 20.00 9.7 18-1
4 4 Enterdadragon 15.00 10.5 20-1
15 15 Rocky Joy 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Carcano 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 The Hidden Chamber 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Midnite in Finley 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 White Whale 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Flick 15.00 3 6-1
1 1 Globalist 3.00 3.5 7-1
10 10 Game and Smart 8.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Galantini 6.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Studeny 6.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Thirteen G’s 8.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 Ifyouneedmecallme 20.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 Nash Potatoes 12.00 7.6 14-1
3 3 Bossofmi 15.00 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.