Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, November 5, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Matinee Idol 1.80 1 2-1
1 1 Barb 2.00 1.1 2-1
6 6 Morlock 2.50 1.3 2-1
3 3 Crazy Diamond 5.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Tap Me a Song 10.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Empire Ranch 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 American Pearl 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Quick to Charm 2.50 1.3 2-1
6 6 Sonhador 3.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Whitethorn 3.50 1.8 3-1
1 1 Sensing Flatter 8.00 4 8-1
3 3 Pronghorn 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Risuko 1.60 1 2-1
2 2 Give Her Another 2.50 1.3 3-1
5 5 Up the Creek 4.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Commanded 4.50 2.1 4-1
1 1 Keyana 6.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Antique Silver 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 River Rise 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Hot Gossip 3.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 I’m a Little Crazy 4.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Lady Upstart 4.50 2.6 5-1
4 4 Beautiful McKinzie 6.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Dreaming of June 8.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Firebird Suite 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Dr Fenn 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Vino Subito 3.00 1.4 3-1
6 6 Free Choice 3.50 1.7 3-1
2 2 Two Seven O 4.50 2.5 5-1
8 8 Dreamofyou 6.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Whiskey Bee Gone 12.00 8 15-1
5 5 War Munny 12.00 8 15-1
7 7 I Forgot to Ask 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Miss Arlington 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Current Climate 3.50 1.5 3-1
8 8 Promises to Dance 4.50 2.5 5-1
2 2 Bolt On the Rocks 5.00 3 6-1
3 3 Always Angels 6.00 4 8-1
5 5 Candy Lover 6.00 4 8-1
7 7 Bourbon Breeze 8.00 6 11-1
6 6 Lover Girl 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Reckless 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Flaming Rainbow 3.50 1.3 3-1
5 5 Mister Punch 4.50 2 4-1
3 3 Wolfcamp 5.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Alghero 6.00 3 6-1
9 9 Scuffle 8.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Miskell 12.00 7 13-1
2 2 Crypto Cory 15.00 9 17-1
1 1 Au Naturel 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Princess Madison 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 Hush It Honey 2.50 1.2 2-1
1 1 Amarth 3.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 Cervaro Della Sala (GB) 4.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Flash Wear 6.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Blue Squall 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Zun Day 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Spirit of a Walkon 3.50 1.6 3-1
10 10 Mayweather 4.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 Into Battle 6.00 3 6-1
6 6 Vekoma Velocity 8.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Fuoco Vivo 8.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Bye Bye Brady 10.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Rochester 12.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Talmadge 12.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Janey’s Flyin 20.00 11 21-1
11 11 Big Boy Thunder 20.00 11 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.