Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, November 6, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Mintastic 5.00 1 2-1
1 1 Barricade 1.20 1.2 2-1
4 4 Right On Right On 3.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Conquering Cat 2.50 3.8 7-1
2 2 Batter Up 10.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Princess Kalamoh 2.00 1 2-1
6 6 Mila Junes 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Crushed Ice 5.00 1 2-1
3 3 Minnesota Munny 6.00 1 2-1
4 4 Miranda’s Rocky 3.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Calisue 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Merry Madison 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Mimi’s Grace 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Chasing Glory 8.00 1.4 3-1
6 6 Baby Avery 5.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Risky Wave 6.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Bea Trix 10.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Hampton’s Affair 4.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Xander 10.00 1 2-1
4 4 Shipman 2.50 1.4 3-1
1 1 Mine Own Star 12.00 1.9 4-1
10 10 Bloodline 4.00 3.1 6-1
11 11 Princip 5.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 High Strike 10.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Kunshan Bridge 12.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 W W Crazy 20.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Stomping Hotrod 30.00 8 15-1
9 9 Improbable Story 30.00 9.9 19-1
8 8 Ready Pursuit 30.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Saltwater Cowboy 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Tam Tam 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Elegant Miss 4.00 2 4-1
8 8 Rockin Robin 5.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Maximum Offer 8.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Honfleur 3.50 4 8-1
7 7 Measure 4.50 4.7 9-1
5 5 Inkling 12.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Holly’s Holiday 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 She’z the Law 4.50 1 2-1
7 7 Laurice 5.00 1.5 3-1
10 10 Lost and Found 3.00 1.7 3-1
8 8 Flirting With Time 8.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Bunratty Manor (IRE) 3.50 3.9 7-1
3 3 Party Pauline 20.00 4.1 8-1
11 11 Malibu Muse 10.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Saphira 5.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Mila Candy 8.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Sarissa 30.00 8.3 16-1
9 9 Shirley Ann 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Showers 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Volatile Market 5.00 3.8 7-1
11 11 Misty Muppet 4.50 5.8 11-1
3 3 Chandon 15.00 6 11-1
10 10 Fancy Fascinator 10.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Sweet Note 10.00 7.1 13-1
9 9 Ahamo 5.00 7.3 14-1
8 8 Royalewithcheese 15.00 7.5 14-1
12 12 Miss Tifeye 15.00 8 15-1
5 5 Hand It Over 8.00 8.2 16-1
6 6 Bright Lady Day 30.00 9.5 18-1
4 4 Mombayla 15.00 10.1 19-1
7 7 Vanished 3.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Well Aware 10.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Birthday Girl 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Harrodsburg 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 Alder 3.00 3 6-1
3 3 Billal 5.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Lofty Adjudicator 6.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Bango 4.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Happy American 5.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Spankster 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Love Her Lots 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Honey Hauler 10.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Steampunk 3.50 3.4 6-1
4 4 Morning Miracle 4.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Missy Bee 4.50 4.1 8-1
2 2 Windy Bay 12.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Graceleadsushome 30.00 6 11-1
11 11 Brittanysgldnfaith 10.00 6.1 12-1
7 7 Lady Blake 10.00 6.6 13-1
9 9 Spotty Showers 8.00 6.8 13-1
10 10 Molly’s Rose 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.