Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, November 7, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Perfect Audible 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Tingus Pingus 3.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Mischief Mania 3.50 1.5 3-1
4 4 Big D 5.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Smols 5.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Colt Forty Seven 10.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Cuzin Roscoe 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Brooklynn Drew 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Mezcalifornia 3.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Mom’s Cheesecake 3.50 2.4 5-1
3 3 Carolina Candy 4.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Creative Quality 6.00 6 11-1
2 2 Viral Plane Lady 6.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Alta Avenue 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Miss Mo Magic 3.50 1.4 3-1
6 6 Berlinwin 4.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 P. O. S. H. Posh 4.50 2.2 4-1
4 4 Lady Nvida 5.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Amazing Lady 10.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 More Sweets 10.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Crown of Violence 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Epic Ride 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 Quatrocento 2.50 1.2 2-1
6 6 Emmanuel 3.50 1.7 3-1
4 4 Northern Invader 5.00 2.4 4-1
7 7 Paros 5.00 2.4 4-1
1 1 Strong Quality 12.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Kupuna 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Good Mojo 1.80 1 2-1
7 7 Don’t Ghost Me 2.50 1.2 2-1
10 10 D Bigalow 3.50 1.5 3-1
4 4 Policy Change 8.00 3 6-1
8 8 Classic Rock 10.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Game Day 15.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Run Tzu 15.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Tap Em’ Out 30.00 10 19-1
3 3 Flamefire 30.00 10 19-1
6 6 More Than Prada 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Into the Beast 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 Midnight Rocket 3.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Himothy 6.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Eleos 6.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Magic Brew 8.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 Gentleman Jim 8.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 U Jheremy 10.00 8 15-1
7 7 Roman Rogue 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Cliffs 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Virgin Colada 3.00 1.2 2-1
8 8 Modern Sound 3.50 1.4 3-1
4 4 Girls Rock 6.00 2.4 5-1
10 10 Exclusive Star 8.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Les Is Best 10.00 4 8-1
3 3 Tickin Time Blonde 12.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Bee Cat 15.00 6 11-1
12 12 Dawn After Dawn 15.00 6 11-1
11 11 La Marinera 30.00 12 23-1
9 9 Sheila’s Lion 30.00 12 23-1
6 6 Romany Road 30.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Carson Street 3.50 1 2-1
11 11 Grand Slam Sam 4.00 1.2 2-1
2 2 Mesquite 4.50 1.5 3-1
8 8 Liberty Valance 5.00 1.7 3-1
10 10 Silver Shot 5.00 1.7 3-1
13 13 Sartorial 10.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Apollo Eleven 15.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Wicked Gun 15.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Mister Landry 15.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Mimicry 15.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Mom’s Spaghetti 20.00 8.5 16-1
3 3 Astound 20.00 8.5 16-1
5 5 Ring Curl 30.00 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Beer Run 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Innovator 3.50 1.5 3-1
4 4 Its Bourbon Thirty 5.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Floodlites 6.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 G T Five Hundred 8.00 3.8 7-1
10 10 Trouble Time 8.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Rowdy Riot 12.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Curlin’s Gesture 15.00 7.4 14-1
1 1 Evan On Earth 15.00 7.4 14-1
9 9 Amoudi Bay 20.00 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.