Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, November 9, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Castle Island 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Masteroffoxhounds 3.00 1.6 3-1
7 7 Texas Red Hot 4.50 3.2 6-1
1 1 Big Paper 5.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Master Game 5.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Denington 6.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Knicks Story 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Large Risk 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Gray Is Okay 3.00 1.2 2-1
4 4 State Conceal 3.50 1.3 3-1
1 1 Chuck’s Law 4.50 1.7 3-1
5 5 Psalmist 6.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Owie 12.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 All Legal 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Bob’s Carrot 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Forty Love 3.00 1.2 2-1
3 3 Hesper 3.50 1.3 3-1
7 7 Focusyn 4.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Pulgarcito 6.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 No Take Backs 10.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 All About Croge 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Sevenon 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Triple Moon 3.00 1.3 2-1
1 1 Lady Dixie 5.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Jailhouse Religion 5.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Bullet Baby 6.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 Melly’s Birkin 8.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 She’s All Ellie 12.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Pickleball Queen 15.00 9 17-1
7 7 Vino Alla Mora 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Night Kiss 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 De’ Ans Eighty 2.50 1.2 2-1
5 5 Gloriette 3.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Abitibi 6.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Tiffany Twist 8.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Frango Electrico 15.00 7 13-1
2 2 Bella Cruella 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Love Supreme 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Crawford 3.00 1.2 2-1
6 6 Tatania 5.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Roiling 6.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Moonlight Dash 6.00 2.6 5-1
9 9 Daring Madison 8.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Pickle Shoes 10.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Cuvee Creed 12.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Complex Trick 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Poster 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Judge Davis 3.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Noises Off 4.00 2 4-1
4 4 Miranda Rights 5.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Idratherbeblessed 5.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Smokey Mandate 6.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Surly Furious 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Donna Romano 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Camila Catalina 3.50 1.6 3-1
6 6 Valala 4.50 2.1 4-1
7 7 Victory Music 5.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 What’s Up Dog 5.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 Mariette 6.00 3 6-1
4 4 Starlit Nite 15.00 8 15-1
3 3 Sugaree 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Incursion 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 My Own 3.50 1.3 2-1
1 1 Master Mule 4.50 1.9 4-1
8 8 Tom Cat Tuesday 5.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Chado 6.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Suited and Booted 6.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Shadow Coast 8.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Mi Dinero 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Thailand 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Lemon’s Law 3.50 1.9 4-1
8 8 Drop Shot 5.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Dufoof 6.00 4 8-1
10 10 Beale Street Boy 6.00 4 8-1
15 15 No Joke Joe 8.00 5.7 11-1
14 14 Fortuny 10.00 7.4 14-1
11 11 Apache One Six 10.00 7.4 14-1
16 16 Lighter 10.00 7.4 14-1
6 6 Zeppelin 15.00 11.7 22-1
13 13 Hoss N Boss 15.00 11.7 22-1
9 9 Still Sober 20.00 16 30-1
12 12 Hayes Goal 20.00 16 30-1
2 2 Helpful Howie 20.00 16 30-1
4 4 Apollo’s Glory 20.00 16 30-1
7 7 Ruler of the Skies 20.00 16 30-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.