Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, November 12, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Honky Tonk Highway 6.00 1 2-1
4 4 Top Gun Tommy 2.50 2.3 4-1
5 5 Five o’ Somewhere 3.00 2.4 4-1
6 6 Gilded Ruler 5.00 3 6-1
7 7 Scotty’s On Edge 15.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Hocus 20.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Turn Up the Trees 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Chryso Alogo 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Cape Trafalgar 1.60 1.7 3-1
4 4 J J’s Joker 6.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Sutherland 5.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Sergeant Gump 6.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Born Flawless 5.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Hometown Hero 30.00 7.9 15-1
5 5 Ready Pursuit 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Speighter Woman 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Bamtwentyklater 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 Kissin Cash 5.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Her Town 5.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Miss Macy 20.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Harmony Road 6.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Northern Voyage 4.50 4.3 8-1
2 2 Lovely Emma 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Evening News 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Tejas 5.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Daryl’s Bolt 6.00 4.5 9-1
10 10 Jr’s Gift 15.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Patch O’Brien 15.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Track Ranger 12.00 6.6 13-1
7 7 Demotivate 4.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Modica 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Call the Cavalry 4.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Nine Questions 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Cat Spring 6.00 1 2-1
4 4 Malanya 12.00 3.5 7-1
12 12 Treasured Times 4.00 3.7 7-1
10 10 Temple Goddess 2.50 4.1 8-1
1 1 Melody Maker 3.50 4.5 8-1
6 6 Sugar Doll 15.00 5.3 10-1
9 9 Lost Chord 15.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Amended Dreamer 20.00 6.8 13-1
11 11 Completely Elegant 20.00 7.7 15-1
8 8 Tap to Give 15.00 10.7 20-1
2 2 Lillesand 15.00 11.6 22-1
5 5 Always in Vogue 20.00 12 23-1
15 15 Sea Zest 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Patron Silver 2.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Tender Temper 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Viking Quest 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Election Night 8.00 1 2-1
7 7 Barstool 12.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Ledbetter 8.00 2.2 4-1
9 9 Lookin At Mac 10.00 2.4 4-1
3 3 Awesome Hawaiian 8.00 3.6 7-1
11 11 Inspector Fred 15.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Alter Boy 15.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Romantic Ride 20.00 6.6 12-1
4 4 Mountain High 1.80 SCRATCH
10 10 Kingscliff 5.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Coal Fired 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Trouble in Love 1.40 1 2-1
3 3 Gin’s Beach Road 1.60 1.6 3-1
4 4 Contrary 8.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Whippoorwill 10.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Get Back Loretta 5.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Lady of Silence 15.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Kiss Me Again 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Sir Greylind 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Duke of Duval 10.00 2 4-1
8 8 Resilience 3.00 2 4-1
2 2 Passion Rules 2.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Big Blue Line 5.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Treble Clef 15.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Neon Nights 20.00 7.4 14-1
4 4 Urban Planner 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Bright Skittle 4.00 SCRATCH
12 12 I’m Trouble 2.50 2.4 4-1
4 4 Be Real 3.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Thunder Roll 12.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Hogie the Player 15.00 5.2 10-1
11 11 Military Cruiser 8.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Dismiss 15.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Cortina (IRE) 20.00 7.1 13-1
9 9 Western Boy (ARG) 10.00 9.5 18-1
6 6 Big Garry 30.00 9.7 18-1
5 5 Zap d’Etat 30.00 10 19-1
10 10 Carson 15.00 10.5 20-1
15 15 Zapping Strike 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Countthecarats 15.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Restore (FR) 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 First Navy Jack (IRE) 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.