Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, November 14, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Southeastern 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Silver Talisman 3.50 1.3 3-1
3 3 No More Kings 4.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Telecaster 4.50 2 4-1
7 7 Wingfoot 8.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Lennie G 8.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Six String Prince 12.00 7 13-1
2 2 Out Flat 12.00 7 13-1
9 9 Flaming Embers 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Strong State 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 Lynn’s Milky Way 2.50 1.1 2-1
4 4 Her Laugh 3.00 1.3 2-1
5 5 Modo 3.50 1.4 3-1
6 6 Rosato 6.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Costa Amalfitana 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Caramel Chip 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Oscar Eclipse 4.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Gold Luck 5.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Olazabal 6.00 4 7-1
2 2 Furious Anger 6.00 4 7-1
1 1 Inexorable 8.00 5.6 11-1
9 9 Gunner Bay 8.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Unload 12.00 9 17-1
7 7 Excel Calculator 12.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Patron Silver 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Bohemian 4.50 1.8 3-1
6 6 Paseo 5.00 2.1 4-1
9 9 Lowenstein (IRE) 6.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Mother Green 8.00 3.8 7-1
15 15 Labile 10.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Rhapsody in Motion 10.00 4.9 9-1
10 10 Sea Zest 10.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Holly Hetty 10.00 4.9 9-1
12 12 Tender Temper 12.00 6 11-1
14 14 La Puma 12.00 6 11-1
13 13 Minstrelly 15.00 7.7 14-1
3 3 Roccabella 20.00 10.4 20-1
16 16 Modern Escape 20.00 10.4 20-1
11 11 Danzig’s Dora 20.00 10.4 20-1
2 2 Viking Quest 30.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Publicity 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Promissione 3.50 1.3 2-1
5 5 Shortstop 4.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 Romantic Lead 6.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Enough Already 8.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Gun It and Run It 10.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Chances Taken 12.00 5.8 11-1
9 9 Greatdayforhockey 15.00 7.4 14-1
8 8 Train and Trust 15.00 7.4 14-1
10 10 Ghost Prince 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Redeposit 1.60 1 2-1
4 4 Trouble Ahead 5.00 3 6-1
5 5 Tommy the Train 6.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Sokota 8.00 4.8 9-1
11 11 Inspired Glory 12.00 7.2 14-1
3 3 Jinxzi 12.00 7.2 14-1
8 8 Bo Bo Dough 12.00 7.2 14-1
1 1 Ponca 12.00 7.2 14-1
2 2 Come On Pop 12.00 7.2 14-1
12 12 Berniedott 15.00 9 17-1
7 7 Max the Butler 20.00 12 23-1
10 10 King’s Plan 20.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Killjoy 3.00 1 2-1
10 10 Iron Sharpens Iron 3.50 1.3 2-1
3 3 Big Salt Lick 4.50 1.8 3-1
1 1 King Peanut 6.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Itsinmyblood 6.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Hedge 6.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Charbonnay 12.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Beezer 15.00 7.4 14-1
7 7 Baxter 20.00 10 19-1
2 2 Mor Success 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Somethingdangerous 3.00 1 2-1
10 10 La Norme de Jour 3.50 1.3 2-1
1 1 Prize Pick 5.00 2 4-1
8 8 Sockdolager 6.00 2.6 5-1
13 13 Unauthorized 8.00 3.6 7-1
12 12 Steel Golden 10.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Tiz Authority 10.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Hot Days Ahead 12.00 5.7 11-1
11 11 Bourbonkoma 15.00 7.2 14-1
2 2 Crupper 15.00 7.2 14-1
7 7 Sure to Appeal 20.00 9.8 19-1
15 15 Cricket Neck 20.00 9.8 19-1
14 14 Brilliant Bomb 20.00 9.8 19-1
6 6 Grace Met Cupid 20.00 9.8 19-1
4 4 Because of Love 30.00 15 28-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Our Starry Night 3.50 1 2-1
8 8 Heart Headed 4.00 1.3 2-1
7 7 Smokey Smokey 4.50 1.6 3-1
5 5 Let My People Go 5.00 1.9 3-1
13 13 Go Captain 5.00 1.9 3-1
4 4 Eakly 8.00 3.6 7-1
14 14 Linzer 8.00 3.6 7-1
15 15 Alder 8.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Attache 10.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Jakajaro (IRE) 12.00 5.8 11-1
16 16 Mischievous Rogue 15.00 7.5 14-1
6 6 Classic Legacy 15.00 7.5 14-1
2 2 Surf City 15.00 7.5 14-1
11 11 Hedwig 15.00 7.5 14-1
10 10 Foxtrotanna 30.00 16 30-1
1 1 Innately Good 30.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Ivory and Ebony 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Take Charge Omaha 4.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Low Key 5.00 2.9 5-1
14 14 Five a Side 6.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Crimsonite 6.00 3.6 7-1
11 11 Union Mist 10.00 6.6 12-1
8 8 Scooch Over 12.00 8.1 15-1
3 3 Jewel Box 12.00 8.1 15-1
9 9 Faire Plaisir 15.00 10.3 19-1
4 4 Quinn’s Promise 15.00 10.3 19-1
13 13 Aviso 15.00 10.3 19-1
5 5 Lobby Rendezvous 15.00 10.3 19-1
6 6 Saint Nancy S 20.00 14 26-1
10 10 Vino Tiempo 20.00 14 26-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.