Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, November 14, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Telecaster 4.50 1 2-1
6 6 Silver Talisman 3.50 1.7 3-1
3 3 No More Kings 4.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Southeastern 3.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Lennie G 8.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Wingfoot 8.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Six String Prince 12.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Out Flat 12.00 8.1 15-1
9 9 Flaming Embers 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Modo 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Her Laugh 3.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Lynn’s Milky Way 2.50 3.9 7-1
1 1 Strong State 2.00 4 8-1
6 6 Rosato 6.00 5 9-1
2 2 Costa Amalfitana 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Caramel Chip 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Unload 12.00 1.2 2-1
8 8 Oscar Eclipse 4.00 2.4 4-1
5 5 Olazabal 6.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Gold Luck 5.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Furious Anger 6.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Inexorable 8.00 3.8 7-1
9 9 Gunner Bay 8.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Excel Calculator 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Bohemian 4.50 1 2-1
8 8 Patron Silver 3.00 2 4-1
6 6 Paseo 5.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Holly Hetty 10.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Lowenstein (IRE) 6.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Rhapsody in Motion 10.00 6.3 12-1
10 10 Sea Zest 10.00 6.6 13-1
3 3 Roccabella 20.00 7.2 14-1
12 12 Tender Temper 12.00 9 17-1
2 2 Viking Quest 30.00 9 17-1
11 11 Danzig’s Dora 20.00 9.2 17-1
7 7 Mother Green 8.00 9.8 19-1
15 15 Labile 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Minstrelly 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 La Puma 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Modern Escape 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Romantic Lead 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Promissione 3.50 1.4 3-1
8 8 Train and Trust 15.00 1.6 3-1
5 5 Shortstop 4.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Enough Already 8.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Chances Taken 12.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Gun It and Run It 10.00 6.9 13-1
10 10 Ghost Prince 20.00 6.9 13-1
9 9 Greatdayforhockey 15.00 8 15-1
1 1 Publicity 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Redeposit 1.60 1 2-1
8 8 Bo Bo Dough 12.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 Come On Pop 12.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Tommy the Train 6.00 4.2 8-1
11 11 Inspired Glory 12.00 4.8 9-1
10 10 King’s Plan 20.00 5.3 10-1
12 12 Berniedott 15.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Trouble Ahead 5.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Jinxzi 12.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Sokota 8.00 8.7 16-1
7 7 Max the Butler 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Ponca 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Big Salt Lick 4.50 1 2-1
9 9 Killjoy 3.00 2.3 4-1
10 10 Iron Sharpens Iron 3.50 2.5 5-1
5 5 Itsinmyblood 6.00 2.9 6-1
1 1 King Peanut 6.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Hedge 6.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Beezer 15.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Baxter 20.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Charbonnay 12.00 6 11-1
2 2 Mor Success 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 La Norme de Jour 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 Somethingdangerous 3.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Tiz Authority 10.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Sure to Appeal 20.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Sockdolager 6.00 5.6 11-1
12 12 Steel Golden 10.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Grace Met Cupid 20.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Prize Pick 5.00 7.3 14-1
11 11 Bourbonkoma 15.00 9 17-1
13 13 Unauthorized 8.00 9.1 17-1
9 9 Hot Days Ahead 12.00 9.6 18-1
2 2 Crupper 15.00 10.7 20-1
15 15 Cricket Neck 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Brilliant Bomb 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Because of Love 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Heart Headed 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Let My People Go 5.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Smokey Smokey 4.50 2.5 5-1
12 12 Our Starry Night 3.50 4 8-1
9 9 Attache 10.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Eakly 8.00 5.2 10-1
14 14 Linzer 8.00 5.9 11-1
11 11 Hedwig 15.00 7.4 14-1
3 3 Jakajaro (IRE) 12.00 7.6 14-1
2 2 Surf City 15.00 8.7 16-1
10 10 Foxtrotanna 30.00 9.9 19-1
1 1 Innately Good 30.00 11.2 21-1
16 16 Mischievous Rogue 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Classic Legacy 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Go Captain 5.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Alder 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Crimsonite 6.00 1 2-1
12 12 Ivory and Ebony 2.50 2.7 5-1
11 11 Union Mist 10.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Low Key 5.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Saint Nancy S 20.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Take Charge Omaha 4.00 5.6 11-1
14 14 Five a Side 6.00 6.6 12-1
9 9 Faire Plaisir 15.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Quinn’s Promise 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Aviso 15.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Scooch Over 12.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Lobby Rendezvous 15.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Jewel Box 12.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Vino Tiempo 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.