Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, November 16, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Plaza Cue 1.40 1 2-1
6 6 Nana Grace 3.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Executive Suite 3.50 2.2 4-1
3 3 Ashes and Diamonds 6.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Bit of Frost 8.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Dancing Girl 10.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Noroomformischief 1.80 1 2-1
4 4 Menkaure 2.50 1.4 3-1
3 3 Sister Wife 4.50 2.6 5-1
7 7 Killa Sally 5.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Light My Flame 8.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Sticker Shocked 10.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Tactical Command 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Marelow 2.50 1 2-1
10 10 Well Aware 3.50 1.5 3-1
5 5 Mustang Lady 4.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Animal Fries 5.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Wild Acclaim 6.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Skylarose 6.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Tiz Salty 15.00 7.4 14-1
1 1 Princess Buttercup 20.00 10 19-1
4 4 Cheyenne Moon 20.00 10 19-1
2 2 Fifth Wheel 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Good Long Cry 2.50 1 2-1
9 9 Surprenant Cocca 3.00 1.2 2-1
10 10 Cha Cha Chukka 4.50 1.7 3-1
1 1 Dozen Diamonds 6.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Bread to Run 8.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Miss Authentic 10.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Ce La Vi Charli 10.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Classy’n Connected 15.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Sheila’s Lion 15.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Sweet Heat 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Doc Bovie 3.50 1 2-1
9 9 Backside 4.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Barker 4.50 1.3 3-1
3 3 Dr. Saikali 5.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 Arthur Jr 6.00 1.9 3-1
10 10 Woodson 6.00 1.9 3-1
8 8 Buddy Mac 10.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Globalist 10.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Bon Temps 20.00 6.6 12-1
1 1 Exhilaration 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Bestfriend Rocket 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Carolo Rapido 3.50 1.3 2-1
1 1 Gasoline 4.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 Quality Chic 4.50 1.8 3-1
6 6 Yellow Brick 6.00 2.6 5-1
10 10 Hern 10.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Elusive Target 12.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Slip Mahoney 15.00 7.4 14-1
9 9 C F V Bullet 20.00 10 19-1
5 5 Go Emi 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Hop Sing 1.40 1 2-1
2 2 Chillax 1.80 1.1 2-1
8 8 Pagode 5.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Fountain Lake 6.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Write Off Jerry 12.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 What’s Up Doc 15.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Energize 15.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Hurricanes Ablowin 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Fashion Designer 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Slay the Day 3.00 1.4 3-1
9 9 Mighty Hankerin 8.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Diamondintherough 8.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Winning Matters 8.00 5.4 10-1
15 15 Aunt Sheryl 10.00 7 13-1
10 10 Run On States 12.00 8.6 16-1
11 11 Yasmin 12.00 8.6 16-1
14 14 Baby Hello 12.00 8.6 16-1
12 12 Lockdownyourtown 12.00 8.6 16-1
3 3 Epic Prankster 15.00 11 21-1
4 4 Princess Julie 15.00 11 21-1
2 2 Majestic Moon 15.00 11 21-1
13 13 Smoked Peach 15.00 11 21-1
7 7 Appealing Mischief 20.00 15 28-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Moon Spun 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Tales of The Heart (IRE) 3.00 1.2 2-1
10 10 Niki Nine Doors 4.50 1.9 4-1
1 1 Don’t Say It 6.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Dala 6.00 2.5 5-1
9 9 Mom’s Palace 6.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Rileys Redemption 8.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Continuity 8.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Big Trouble 10.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Hideki 20.00 8.6 16-1
11 11 Classic Performer 30.00 13 25-1
3 3 Musical Note 30.00 13 25-1
12 12 Caberneigh 30.00 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Laughnowcrylater 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Bourbon Society 3.50 1.7 3-1
13 13 Excel Calculator 4.00 2.1 4-1
14 14 Papa Yo 6.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Thrilla 6.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Fountain Run 8.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Baytown Bruiser 10.00 6.6 12-1
11 11 Anthonian 10.00 6.6 12-1
10 10 Did It Dialed 12.00 8.1 15-1
2 2 Tyler’s Turn 12.00 8.1 15-1
3 3 Moral 12.00 8.1 15-1
4 4 Anglican 15.00 10.3 19-1
9 9 Beyond Best 20.00 14 26-1
5 5 Utopian 20.00 14 26-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.