Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, November 19, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Mountain Wolf 1.00 1 2-1
5 5 C. P. A. Jim 2.50 1.6 3-1
6 6 Prototype 4.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Baal 12.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Bagg O Time 15.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Brock’s Boy 20.00 8 15-1
3 3 Federal Agent 20.00 8 15-1
8 8 Homepage 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Golden Degree 1.80 1 2-1
4 4 Titled Lady 2.50 1.4 3-1
7 7 Demi 3.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 We’ll Do It Live 8.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Smart With Heart 10.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Progeny 10.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Sense of Pearl 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Two Seven O 1.40 1 2-1
7 7 Jock Frost 5.00 3.7 7-1
9 9 Vino Subito 6.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Wood You Dare 8.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Silent Horizon 10.00 7.3 14-1
4 4 Knickadoo 12.00 8.8 17-1
3 3 Secreto Uno 15.00 11 21-1
8 8 Royal Sapphire 15.00 11 21-1
1 1 Montalbano 15.00 11 21-1
10 10 Heavenly Match 15.00 11 21-1
11 11 I Forgot to Ask 15.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Capital Connection 2.00 1 2-1
6 6 Aerate 4.50 2 4-1
3 3 Mashburn 8.00 3.4 6-1
10 10 Tempus Prime 8.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Saint Shance 10.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Coastal Breeze 10.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Miracle On Central 10.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Du Monde 12.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Cardinal Union 15.00 6.1 12-1
1 1 Mandy’s Man Can 15.00 6.1 12-1
12 12 Major League 20.00 8.1 15-1
11 11 Fox Creek 30.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Just an Opinion 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Tartaria 3.50 1.5 3-1
8 8 Streaking 4.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Wonder of You 4.50 2 4-1
5 5 Coastline Hottie 10.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Spotaway 10.00 4.9 9-1
10 10 Sensible Choice 12.00 5.9 11-1
9 9 Kanazawa 15.00 7.4 14-1
3 3 Lylah Renee 15.00 7.4 14-1
7 7 Faith Hope N Love 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Glazin’ Fury 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 You’re in Heaven 3.50 1.3 2-1
6 6 Silvertown 4.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Lockdownyourtown 4.50 1.9 4-1
1 1 Telling Tales 12.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Rockin the Lane 12.00 6.3 12-1
11 11 Appealing Mischief 12.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Faithful Departed 15.00 8.1 15-1
9 9 La Presumida 15.00 8.1 15-1
10 10 Baby Hello 15.00 8.1 15-1
7 7 G One Bound 20.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Intangible 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Leedu 3.50 1.5 3-1
3 3 Nycon 4.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Flash of Freedom 4.50 2 4-1
1 1 Bella Street 5.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Red Rainbow 15.00 7.4 14-1
6 6 Shidoni 20.00 10 19-1
9 9 Rhapsody in Blue 20.00 10 19-1
7 7 Summer Date 20.00 10 19-1
10 10 Cearnach 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Aggressive Lime 1.80 1 2-1
5 5 Dame Laura 2.50 1.2 2-1
8 8 Back Ring Buzz 3.00 1.3 3-1
2 2 Conceit 4.50 1.8 3-1
7 7 Diablo Shiraz 15.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 My Lady Jbella 20.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Dreaming Collect 20.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Dreaming Why 30.00 9 17-1
4 4 Storm Cloud Rising 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Patriot Moon 2.00 1 2-1
6 6 Outlaw Empire 3.50 1.6 3-1
7 7 My Milestone 6.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Slay Sadie Slay 6.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Righteous 8.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Kingscliff 10.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Non Conforming 12.00 4.9 9-1
11 11 Candy Cane Crain 12.00 4.9 9-1
12 12 Blessed Warrior 15.00 6.1 12-1
5 5 C McGriff 20.00 8.1 15-1
2 2 Brilliant Bomb 20.00 8.1 15-1
8 8 Cricket Neck 30.00 12 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.