Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, November 19, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Mountain Wolf 1.00 1 2-1
3 3 Federal Agent 20.00 3.4 7-1
6 6 Prototype 4.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Baal 12.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Bagg O Time 15.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Homepage 20.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Brock’s Boy 20.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 C. P. A. Jim 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Golden Degree 1.80 1 2-1
4 4 Titled Lady 2.50 1.8 3-1
1 1 Sense of Pearl 12.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Smart With Heart 10.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Demi 3.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 We’ll Do It Live 8.00 6.1 12-1
5 5 Progeny 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Two Seven O 1.40 1 2-1
7 7 Jock Frost 5.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Secreto Uno 15.00 4.8 9-1
11 11 I Forgot to Ask 15.00 5 10-1
5 5 Silent Horizon 10.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Knickadoo 12.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 Montalbano 15.00 7.8 15-1
10 10 Heavenly Match 15.00 8 15-1
8 8 Royal Sapphire 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Wood You Dare 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Vino Subito 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Capital Connection 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 Cardinal Union 15.00 4.5 9-1
10 10 Tempus Prime 8.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 Saint Shance 10.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Aerate 4.50 6.1 11-1
2 2 Miracle On Central 10.00 6.3 12-1
9 9 Du Monde 12.00 8.1 15-1
12 12 Major League 20.00 8.3 16-1
1 1 Mandy’s Man Can 15.00 8.4 16-1
11 11 Fox Creek 30.00 10.8 20-1
3 3 Mashburn 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Coastal Breeze 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Just an Opinion 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Wonder of You 4.50 2.2 4-1
10 10 Sensible Choice 12.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Tartaria 3.50 4.5 9-1
9 9 Kanazawa 15.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Coastline Hottie 10.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Spotaway 10.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 Streaking 4.00 7 13-1
7 7 Faith Hope N Love 20.00 7.9 15-1
3 3 Lylah Renee 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Silvertown 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Glazin’ Fury 3.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Rockin the Lane 12.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Lockdownyourtown 4.50 5 10-1
5 5 You’re in Heaven 3.50 6.6 12-1
1 1 Telling Tales 12.00 7 13-1
11 11 Appealing Mischief 12.00 7.1 13-1
7 7 G One Bound 20.00 7.2 14-1
8 8 Faithful Departed 15.00 7.6 14-1
9 9 La Presumida 15.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Baby Hello 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Intangible 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Nycon 4.00 2 4-1
5 5 Leedu 3.50 2.3 4-1
1 1 Bella Street 5.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Flash of Freedom 4.50 3.7 7-1
4 4 Red Rainbow 15.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Summer Date 20.00 5.5 10-1
10 10 Cearnach 20.00 7.4 14-1
9 9 Rhapsody in Blue 20.00 8.9 17-1
6 6 Shidoni 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Aggressive Lime 1.80 1 2-1
8 8 Back Ring Buzz 3.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Dame Laura 2.50 2 4-1
2 2 Conceit 4.50 2.2 4-1
1 1 My Lady Jbella 20.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Storm Cloud Rising 30.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Diablo Shiraz 15.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Dreaming Why 30.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Dreaming Collect 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Outlaw Empire 3.50 1 2-1
9 9 Non Conforming 12.00 1.7 3-1
10 10 Patriot Moon 2.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Righteous 8.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 My Milestone 6.00 6.1 11-1
5 5 C McGriff 20.00 7.6 14-1
4 4 Kingscliff 10.00 8 15-1
12 12 Blessed Warrior 15.00 8.5 16-1
2 2 Brilliant Bomb 20.00 8.5 16-1
8 8 Cricket Neck 30.00 9.3 18-1
3 3 Slay Sadie Slay 6.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Candy Cane Crain 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.