Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, November 28, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Lady Upstart 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Loving Mischief 3.50 1.1 2-1
4 4 Divine Celina 4.50 1.7 3-1
2 2 Don’tmindifido 3.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Dancing Legacy 12.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Rotisserie 20.00 4 8-1
5 5 Little Value Added 10.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Bizy Dreamin 10.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Zoomaha 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Tizmatic 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Hot Gossip 3.00 1.6 3-1
9 9 Bana 10.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Knickleandime 8.00 3 6-1
5 5 Honor Azteca 5.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Pippa’s Noncents 6.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Lady Viv 15.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Seek and Find 20.00 6 11-1
8 8 Sea Zest 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Ivory and Ebony 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Colonial Rose 3.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Trusty Troutman 4.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Necessity 3.50 4.2 8-1
5 5 Merry Madison 5.00 5 9-1
1 1 Jewel Box 10.00 6.5 12-1
4 4 Bundle 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Mercy Warren 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Windy Bay 10.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Thestral 6.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Crushed Ice 12.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Mila Junes 15.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Minnesota Munny 5.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Princess Kalamoh 12.00 6.1 12-1
7 7 Spotty Showers 30.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Up On the Edge 3.50 SCRATCH
10 10 Just an Opinion 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Finster 5.00 1 2-1
8 8 Furious Anger 4.50 1.4 3-1
3 3 Swaggish 3.50 1.5 3-1
11 11 Five o’ Somewhere 3.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 J J’s Joker 20.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Guanare 10.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Born Flawless 20.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Cool Rags 30.00 7.7 15-1
2 2 Weslan 30.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Farm Team 6.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Track Ranger 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Weighted Average 1.60 1 2-1
8 8 Pretty Layla 20.00 2 4-1
1 1 Fixin to Bee 3.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Tap the Champagne 4.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 Make the Boys Wink 8.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Afrodita 8.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Miss Authentic 12.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Poppy the Princess 12.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Cozee Rags 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Lend It Tewmey 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Tres Soles 5.00 1.5 3-1
9 9 Eastside Cool 4.50 1.6 3-1
10 10 American Blaze 20.00 1.9 4-1
8 8 Master Game 6.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Background 8.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Texas Red Hot 4.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Hemp Heaven 10.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Euclid Avenue 30.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Mowins 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Carolina Candy 5.00 1 2-1
7 7 Miss Ellary 3.00 2.1 4-1
10 10 Dozen Diamonds 12.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Colormecairo 8.00 2.9 5-1
8 8 Mezcalifornia 4.50 2.9 6-1
6 6 Creative Quality 5.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Miss Elle 4.00 3.8 7-1
9 9 Little Dixie 30.00 8.6 16-1
2 2 Tizntshelovely 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 High Summer 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Mamoot 12.00 1 2-1
3 3 Sand Street 4.50 2.6 5-1
11 11 Galpin Sunday 12.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Air Cav 8.00 4.7 9-1
10 10 Gallo de Fuego 3.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Good Money 8.00 6.4 12-1
9 9 Hard to Say 3.50 6.4 12-1
5 5 McIlroy 12.00 6.9 13-1
7 7 Linebacker 10.00 8.9 17-1
6 6 Major Dax 10.00 10.9 21-1
8 8 Shortstop 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Mrs. Revere S.) – Mrs. Revere S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Lush Lips (GB) 1.40 1 2-1
4 4 Classic Q 3.00 1.6 3-1
7 7 Bracelet 10.00 2.7 5-1
10 10 Pretty Picture 10.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Somethinabouther 8.00 4.5 9-1
11 11 Caviar Breakfast 20.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Table Flirt 15.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Sea To Sky (IRE) 30.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 In the Stars 15.00 7.6 14-1
12 12 J N J Heartandsoul 30.00 9.5 18-1
6 6 Princess Attitude 30.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Fast Market 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Clark S. Presented By Norton Healthcare) – Clark S. Presented By Norton Healthcare

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 First Mission 5.00 1 2-1
3 3 Hit Show 3.00 2.4 4-1
4 4 Gosger 4.00 2.8 5-1
9 9 Magnitude 4.50 3.2 6-1
6 6 Rattle N Roll 3.50 3.4 6-1
1 1 Cooke Creek 12.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Chunk of Gold 10.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Who Dey 30.00 6.6 12-1
8 8 Willy D’s 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Vital Mind 6.00 1 2-1
4 4 Sea Vista 2.50 1.8 3-1
8 8 Mizzou 3.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Pitkin 3.50 3 6-1
1 1 Thunder Roll 15.00 3 6-1
10 10 En Fuego 10.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Shallus 20.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Run Tzu 15.00 7.2 14-1
3 3 Homestyle 12.00 7.2 14-1
5 5 Classic Rock 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.