Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Friday, December 5, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Autumn’s Turn 1.20 1 2-1
1 1 Cara’s Chianti 1.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Paraiba Blue 8.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Katerina Ristova 12.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Tizallmine 15.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 My Daughters’ Gift 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Big Hat Willie 1.60 1 2-1
4 4 Trust Issues 3.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Social Hour 8.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Metalhead 12.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Lost in Rome 30.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Barksdale 1.40 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Fourth and One 1.40 1 2-1
4 4 Tizlawry 8.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Max Money 1.20 4.9 9-1
6 6 Snickery 10.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Royal Riddle 10.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Twenty One Red 8.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Ministerial 1.00 1 2-1
6 6 Bob John Ray 6.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 He’s Got This 5.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Unbridled Bomber 8.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Best Bet 3.50 4.9 9-1
4 4 Eric From Miami 15.00 6.1 11-1
1 1 First Trumpet 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Rose Lisa 0.80 1 2-1
3 3 Luciana’s Honor 6.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Banco Di Sicilia 5.00 3 6-1
2 2 Berbice Honey 6.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Icy Legs 10.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Wayward Queen 8.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Pencima 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Airborne Elite 1.00 1 2-1
4 4 Panagiotis 12.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Funny Uncle 3.50 4.1 8-1
3 3 Capt Jax Parrow 4.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Ace It 8.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Dads Good Runner 15.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Sin Nombre 15.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Collect From Ike 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Systemic Change 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 Power Seeker 6.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Love Me Not 2.50 2.5 5-1
5 5 Refuah 5.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Sagamore Mischief 4.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Brew Pub 10.00 4 8-1
7 7 Skylander 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Twohonestmischief 5.00 1 2-1
8 8 Poppy’s Ticket 6.00 1 2-1
2 2 Kaz Oil Changer 8.00 1.1 2-1
6 6 Guilty 4.50 2 4-1
5 5 Probability 2.00 2.4 5-1
7 7 Askingforafriend 2.50 3 6-1
1 1 Klimt Master 50.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Nothingbutnitro 30.00 8 15-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.