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Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, January 1, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Dixie Doctor 5.00 1 2-1
4 4 Dan d’Oro 2.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Oliverio 1.80 3.3 6-1
6 6 Peyton’s Day 10.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 No Rematch 3.50 5.5 10-1
5 5 Tsuperman 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Princess Celine 1.60 1 2-1
2 2 Geaux Geaux Tiger 2.00 1.3 2-1
5 5 Veronicaforthewin 6.00 2 4-1
6 6 Honor and Obay 15.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Pam’s Friend 5.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Lyla’s Golden Gal 20.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Mya Papaya 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Huntleigh 5.00 1 2-1
6 6 Zoom Erin 6.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Emilyhasherturn 8.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Shorty Mac 10.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Dixie Morning 4.50 4.2 8-1
7 7 Gold Plus 3.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 Simona’s Choice 4.00 6 11-1
2 2 In Your Life 10.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Ruby the Destroyer 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Big Scully 8.00 1 2-1
7 7 Boitano 1.80 1.4 3-1
6 6 Fortuity 4.50 2.1 4-1
2 2 Brit’s Wit 6.00 2.2 4-1
10 10 Z Z’s Prince 20.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Parrot Head 30.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Red Road 6.00 4.1 8-1
12 12 All in Sync 20.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Ben Dreaming 8.00 5 9-1
4 4 Prowling Tiger 30.00 6.7 13-1
14 14 Notion 8.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Sendero 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Publius 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Skip the Line 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Top Notch Protocol 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Vineaux 2.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Who Is Chief 12.00 4.5 8-1
3 3 Cajun Moviestar 5.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Ayden’s Edge 12.00 7.3 14-1
5 5 Rescue Squad 8.00 7.6 14-1
7 7 Lightning Twirl 6.00 7.9 15-1
8 8 Such a Pickle 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Optional Claiming) – Maiden Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Shakin My Head 4.50 1 2-1
2 2 Strong 8.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 High Go 4.50 2.6 5-1
3 3 Fast Connection 8.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Moral Man 10.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Ogilvy (IRE) 3.00 5 9-1
7 7 Leonardo 12.00 7.7 15-1
6 6 Mountain Grandeur 6.00 8.1 15-1
10 10 Starmetal 20.00 9.9 19-1
8 8 Chasing Gray 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Sweet Darlin 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Trust Fund Philly 3.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Hay Evabody 3.00 5 9-1
1 1 Shan’s Quest 10.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Terra Bella 4.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Miss Maximus 10.00 6.6 12-1
3 3 Arijana’s Pearl 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 I’m Wide Awake 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Vesture 4.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Hit That Review (IRE) 6.00 2.7 5-1
9 9 Pharoah’s Dynasty 6.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Mega Magic 6.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Sight 12.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 This Time 12.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Sassi D 12.00 4.7 9-1
11 11 Unbeatable 10.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 One True Gentleman 12.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Silver Halo 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Crigler 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Gordito Hermoso 8.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Colt’s Brim 3.00 4 8-1
5 5 Baby’s Last Dance 8.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Stone Alliance 8.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Josan 5.00 6.9 13-1
6 6 Saberman 10.00 7.1 13-1
1 1 Shawn’s Solving 8.00 7.4 14-1
7 7 Tap the Tequila 8.00 9 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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