Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, January 15, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Come to Papa 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Thorsness 3.50 1.2 2-1
6 6 Noguchi 1.80 2.2 4-1
3 3 Magnanimous Max 2.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Big Brown Delivers 20.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Uncle Barrie 30.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Purple and Gold 1.00 1 2-1
5 5 Furry Fox 10.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Cha Cha Wren 5.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Autumn’s Turn 4.50 2.3 4-1
1 1 That’sthefactjack 6.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Heavens Lee 4.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Atarah 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Purr Factor 6.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Despo’s Dream 3.50 2.8 5-1
4 4 Roman Grace 4.50 3 6-1
5 5 Romantic Dancer 2.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Proud Foot 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Dimensionality 8.00 1 2-1
2 2 Raghba 4.50 2.2 4-1
7 7 Trango Tower 6.00 3 6-1
5 5 Laylani Lou 12.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Lost Horizon 1.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Formaggio 3.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Pay the Bills (FR) 50.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Airborne Elite 6.00 1 2-1
4 4 Panagiotis 4.50 1.2 2-1
6 6 Leading Role 2.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Capt Jax Parrow 3.50 2.4 5-1
7 7 Ari’s Magic 3.50 2.7 5-1
8 8 Tiote 12.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Collect From Ike 20.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Tapizar’s Temper 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Systemic Change 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Feeling Woozy 4.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Ridgewood Runner 5.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Mr. Papagiorgio 8.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Magnolia Midnight 20.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Stolen Base 4.50 4.7 9-1
6 6 Neon Bordeaux 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Analog Jones 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Mad Banker 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 This Time Yes 10.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Smilensaycheese 4.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Mo Kreesa 12.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Mo for the King 4.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Joe West 8.00 6 11-1
9 9 Smallchangegeep 15.00 7.1 13-1
1 1 Toga Dan 5.00 7.5 14-1
5 5 Oath of Omerta 30.00 9 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.