Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, January 18, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Mo Smoking 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Where’s Aunt J 3.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Custom Punch 2.50 2.8 5-1
1 1 Steal Me Over 6.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 One Line Ruler 10.00 4 8-1
3 3 Unified Love 8.00 4.5 8-1
8 8 Maximum Moxie 20.00 5 9-1
7 7 Daisy de Oro 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Battleoflexington 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Courageous Cupid 3.50 1.7 3-1
5 5 Dr. Niko 4.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 My Liam 3.50 3 6-1
1 1 D Coldest 10.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Ten Days Later 8.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Red Moscato 6.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Homeland Messa 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 News At Nine 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Frosty Blue 4.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Highstakes Hustler 6.00 2.9 6-1
1 1 Bernin Tune 8.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Raising Kane 5.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Polar Bear Plunge 6.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 C Mac Da Boss 6.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Super Stormy 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Time to Party 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Notion 6.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Hey Boss 4.00 2.4 4-1
1 1 Metatron’s Muse 3.50 2.4 4-1
4 4 Soul Coaxing 6.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Speightster Red 4.00 SCRATCH
6 6 River in Egypt 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Optional Claiming) – Maiden Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Loch Fyne 5.00 1 2-1
5 5 Cara Felce 8.00 2 4-1
4 4 Killa Sally 4.00 2.2 4-1
8 8 Grazie Prego 20.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Napoli 12.00 3 6-1
6 6 Unlikely Queen 12.00 3.3 6-1
10 10 Tortuga Coast 15.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Look At Me Nah 5.00 3.7 7-1
12 12 Faithful Departed 12.00 4 8-1
9 9 Dream From Within 8.00 4 8-1
3 3 Speed Skater 6.00 5 9-1
11 11 U Vicky 12.00 6.1 12-1
13 13 Truly an Honor 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Creole Chrome 0.80 1 2-1
4 4 Awesome Hawaiian 5.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Dynamite Tonight 4.50 4.2 8-1
3 3 Golden Mane 8.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Tiz Mary’s Comet 12.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Perpetual Patience 12.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Go Get Trae 20.00 7.2 14-1
5 5 Pardoned 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Fregata 12.00 1 2-1
8 8 Spare Me 6.00 1.9 4-1
12 12 Gerber Daisy 5.00 2 4-1
6 6 Charging Ovatime 8.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Angelic Katie 15.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Wooten Warrior (IRE) 12.00 2.9 6-1
10 10 Stellar Knickie 20.00 4.3 8-1
9 9 Niche 15.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 New Moon 4.00 5.8 11-1
11 11 Stepping Stones 6.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Sweet Sissone 8.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Seeking Attention 8.00 6.5 12-1
14 14 One More Guitar 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Aegis 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Respectheconnect 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Big Mo 4.50 1.8 3-1
8 8 Deal Me Trips 3.50 1.9 4-1
3 3 Bellastone Country 8.00 2 4-1
7 7 Parole Drama 20.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Gato Blue 6.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Aurelius Lass 6.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 Gallabye 6.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Make Me a Deal 20.00 9 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.