Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, February 5, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Thunderhawk 1.80 1 2-1
2 2 Silver Halo 3.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Sand Street 6.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Saratoga Slack 6.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Unbridled Pleasure 15.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Express Line 8.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Instamatical 4.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Lady Orient 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 Ballybay Beauty 6.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Don’t Be Salty 4.50 4 8-1
3 3 Dakota Cam 4.50 4.3 8-1
2 2 Perfect Union 3.50 5.8 11-1
6 6 McKinzie Magic 6.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Came Up Roses 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Double Edge Sword 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Summer Splash 12.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Guile 2.50 2.5 5-1
7 7 We Miss Arlington 6.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Notion 8.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Avery’s Gem 5.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Pensacola 6.00 5 9-1
2 2 Premium 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Twolatebabydoll (FR) 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Aurora Sky 4.50 1.4 3-1
8 8 Classy Beach 5.00 2.4 4-1
5 5 Chardan 8.00 3.1 6-1
9 9 Lewinsky 5.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 More Sweeter 8.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Mo Complex 15.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Flash N Dash 6.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Tei Tei Tei D 20.00 6.9 13-1
10 10 Noble Wine 4.50 SCRATCH
11 11 Twirling Claire 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Clear as a Bele 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Hay Jude 1.60 1.2 2-1
3 3 Bron and Brow 4.50 2.4 5-1
2 2 Sounds Like Power 5.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Beleout 6.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Craken Jax 10.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 I B Flyin 8.00 1 2-1
1 1 Stepping Stones 3.00 2.4 4-1
6 6 Candy Talking 5.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Dale’s Bluff 4.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Hidden Map 5.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 She’s a Live Wire 10.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Summers With Sonya 12.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Velcamp 4.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Solemn Vow 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Modo 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Evanescence 3.00 2 4-1
4 4 Trouble in Love 3.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Quantum Burst 4.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Aldora 15.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 Hay Evabody 4.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Royal Causeway 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Robert Lee 8.00 2.6 5-1
10 10 Next Time 8.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Black Hornet 6.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 Mischief Ride 20.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Follow Up 3.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Newman 8.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 Bds Top Gun 20.00 7 13-1
8 8 Provider 6.00 7.1 13-1
11 11 Li Grand Zombi 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Quality Spirits 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Classic Tap 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Maximum Effort 4.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Untethered (IRE) 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Sweet Aurora G 6.00 1 2-1
2 2 La Maxima 3.50 1.4 3-1
1 1 Metallic Maid 4.50 1.4 3-1
7 7 Betsy Louise 6.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Custom Value 20.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Miss Maddie 8.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Ve Nina 15.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Bistineau Beauty 4.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Hannah Boo 4.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.