Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, March 5, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Tactical Trackstar 1.00 1 2-1
6 6 Tapwrits Temper 8.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Magni 5.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Majestic Arc 8.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Fiscal Drag 15.00 4 7-1
2 2 Cool Hand Rich 12.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Strand Road 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Bourbon Day 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Le Gris 8.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Film Star 12.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Wynstock 2.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Crushed It 3.50 3.9 7-1
1 1 Ridgewood Runner 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Heavenly Light 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Chocolatechocolate 4.50 1.5 3-1
1 1 Scarlet’s Dream 6.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Cara’s Dreamweaver 2.50 2.6 5-1
7 7 Blenheim Baby 5.00 4 8-1
2 2 Saucy Six 15.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Mo Attitude 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Quinns Silent Roar 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Berbice Honey 15.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Nightscope 6.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Celtic Ledger 12.00 4 7-1
2 2 Private Connection 5.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 No Difference 1.80 SCRATCH
3 3 Game and Blue 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Cathedral Aisle 0.80 1 2-1
4 4 So Vain 3.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Flee 8.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Tangaray Cruiser 6.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 Combatant’s Song 10.00 6.6 12-1
7 7 Kef 30.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Fiona’s Joy 30.00 7.6 14-1
2 2 Tristar Fury 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Looms Boldly 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Stewie 2.50 1.8 3-1
4 4 Catch the Smoke 6.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Timaeus 8.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Brave Bear 5.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Thrill of It 12.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Shipsational 4.50 SCRATCH
1 1 Life and Light 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 What’s Up Bro 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Super Swift 3.50 1.2 2-1
3 3 Beary Funny 5.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Factually Correct 8.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Merica’s Back 1.80 3 6-1
7 7 On the Hill 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Master Freud 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Tinseltown 4.50 1 2-1
11 11 Always Packen 8.00 1.4 3-1
6 6 Tampa Storm 6.00 1.5 3-1
9 9 Whiskey Runner 10.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Manhattan Chrome 3.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Richies Love 8.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Same Old Story 30.00 4 7-1
5 5 Solomini’s World 20.00 4.5 8-1
3 3 Charlie Charmer 15.00 5 9-1
8 8 Languid 4.00 5.9 11-1
10 10 The Fridge 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.