Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, March 5, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Footprint 4.00 1 2-1
10 10 E Lion 5.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Western Run 2.50 2.1 4-1
7 7 Maki Monarchy 3.50 2.4 5-1
5 5 Tyler’s Turn 8.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Where Y’at 15.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Date the Prince 15.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Jack Rabbit 20.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Film At Eleven 20.00 7.7 15-1
3 3 Coin Miner 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Major Dax 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Tough Love Torres 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Chaparrita 15.00 4 8-1
10 10 Zoom Erin 4.00 4 8-1
5 5 Streaking 3.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Unbridled Lunar 20.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Huntleigh 15.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 In Your Life 8.00 4.5 9-1
8 8 Chattanooga Crew 20.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Lil Adeau 30.00 8.6 16-1
4 4 Slushy 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Silver Halo 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Sand Street 10.00 1.3 2-1
3 3 Consecrated 6.00 2.3 4-1
10 10 Spielman 8.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Unbridled Pleasure 12.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Instamatical 8.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Rodavlas 30.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Love a Fighter 30.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Catchin Drama 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Lost in the Sauce 5.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Battle Drum (FR) 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Miss Super Mo 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Geaux Unified 3.50 1.9 3-1
8 8 Rozina Nell 3.50 3.1 6-1
1 1 Mae’s Majesty 10.00 3.2 6-1
9 9 Miss Shane 8.00 4 8-1
2 2 Flash of Fire 8.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Jubilate 10.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Reaux Day 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Brown’s Harmony 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Lucky N Lawless 8.00 1 2-1
8 8 Arabia Wild 3.00 2 4-1
3 3 Different Gravy 4.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Fake Smart 3.50 4.1 8-1
5 5 J J Grey 6.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Colt Forty Seven 8.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 High Go 8.00 7.5 14-1
4 4 Cardinal Cushing 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Moral Man 6.00 1 2-1
7 7 Matching Funds 4.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Quality Spirits 8.00 1.9 4-1
10 10 Brockton 6.00 2.1 4-1
11 11 Skip Forward (JPN) 4.50 2.9 6-1
9 9 Li Grand Zombi 4.50 3.5 7-1
1 1 Concrete Bolt 12.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Plaza Del Sol 8.00 6 11-1
8 8 Campanario 30.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 Whispering Breeze 20.00 6.9 13-1
12 12 One Tough Road 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Gazar 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Wicked as Haggart 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 Cunimbus 5.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 A Passive Nobody 6.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Inchhighatahundred 12.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Red Idol 8.00 6 11-1
4 4 Remi 3.50 7.2 14-1
3 3 Pocketful of Money 20.00 7.8 15-1
7 7 Cajun Moviestar 15.00 8.4 16-1
8 8 Who Is Chief 6.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Lady Liberty 5.00 1 2-1
3 3 Twirling Claire 5.00 1.6 3-1
9 9 Classy Beach 6.00 1.9 4-1
8 8 Don’t Come Looking 4.50 2.8 5-1
6 6 Mo Complex 10.00 2.9 6-1
7 7 Chardan 15.00 3.1 6-1
10 10 I’ll Stop Talking 8.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Noble Wine 8.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Aurora Sky 3.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Hitherto 5.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Macy’s Mischief 5.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Aegis 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Ashes in the Ocean 6.00 1 2-1
3 3 Josh G 8.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Blazing Saber 8.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Name the Time 4.50 3.8 7-1
7 7 Tincan Cat 12.00 3.9 7-1
11 11 Perpetual Patience 3.00 4 8-1
4 4 Due We Dare 12.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Bellamy Brother 20.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Easy Eddie A 6.00 5.4 10-1
12 12 Cash Holiday 20.00 6.1 11-1
10 10 Misterholyroller 20.00 8.6 16-1
9 9 Muncle 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.