Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, April 11, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Speed Skater 3.50 1 2-1
8 8 Buckeye Bombshell 4.00 1.4 3-1
6 6 Nuts and Bolts 4.50 1.7 3-1
9 9 West Coast Dream 6.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Lexico 6.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Galatina 8.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Knockonwood 8.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Queen McKinzie 10.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Starbrite Starlite 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Beale Street Boy 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Standard Deduction 3.50 1.3 2-1
4 4 September Silver 5.00 2.1 4-1
12 12 Gentleman Jim 6.00 2.7 5-1
14 14 Next Time 8.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Frosted Mug 8.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Dispersion 10.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Roundingthird 15.00 7.7 14-1
11 11 Wild Cotton 15.00 7.7 14-1
5 5 In the Tank 20.00 10.4 20-1
10 10 Cardinal Union 20.00 10.4 20-1
2 2 Southern Soul 20.00 10.4 20-1
16 16 Amador 20.00 10.4 20-1
9 9 Janey’s Flyin 30.00 16 30-1
15 15 Race for Cover 30.00 16 30-1
13 13 Usain Th (URU) 30.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Eye Dee Kay 1.60 1 2-1
4 4 Money Run 2.50 1.2 2-1
3 3 King of Hollywood 4.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Hope Joe’s Right 8.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Tres Soles 10.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Fountain Run 12.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Non Fungible 20.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Ice Minister 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Shewontbudge 1.00 1 2-1
8 8 Rockin Robin 3.00 1.6 3-1
9 9 Pinto 4.50 2 4-1
5 5 Bella Darling 6.00 2.4 4-1
2 2 Island Barbie 8.00 2.9 6-1
1 1 Cookie’s Run 10.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Mon Reve 10.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Willowy 30.00 9 17-1
3 3 Once Upon a Time 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Comprehensive 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Minotaur 4.00 1.6 3-1
12 12 Wrathchild 5.00 2 4-1
2 2 Tilson 8.00 3.2 6-1
10 10 Newman 8.00 3.2 6-1
11 11 Provider 10.00 4 8-1
5 5 Bhatia 12.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Magical Factor 15.00 6 11-1
1 1 Underappreciated 15.00 6 11-1
7 7 Ur Benja 30.00 12 23-1
8 8 Still Sober 30.00 12 23-1
9 9 Quiet Mischief 30.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Conquest Warrior 1.80 1 2-1
2 2 Authentic Strike 2.00 1.1 2-1
1 1 Excite 3.50 1.6 3-1
4 4 Curlin’s Malibu 6.00 2.4 4-1
3 3 Original Sin 8.00 3 6-1
6 6 Septarian 15.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Hard as Life 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Arkhipov 1.60 1 2-1
7 7 Noble Confessor 3.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Ciro di Marzio 4.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Love’m Or Liam 6.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Sicilian Defense 8.00 2.8 5-1
9 9 Rocky Joy 12.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Cinister Cix 20.00 6.2 12-1
8 8 Apophis 30.00 9 17-1
5 5 Master of Light 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Right Timing 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Haywinii 4.50 1.8 3-1
10 10 La Rascasse 6.00 2.4 5-1
12 12 Al Ghadeer 8.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 She’s Our Ten 8.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Arcana 10.00 4 8-1
8 8 Epic Proud Mary 10.00 4 8-1
11 11 Belle 12.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Divine Passion 15.00 6 11-1
9 9 Pharoah’s Affair 20.00 8 15-1
4 4 Rose of San Antone 20.00 8 15-1
6 6 Lets Shance It 30.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Jenny Wiley S.) – Jenny Wiley S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Lush Lips (GB) 2.50 1 2-1
10 10 Segesta 3.50 1.3 3-1
8 8 Destino d’Oro 4.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Dynamic Pricing (IRE) 6.00 2.2 4-1
9 9 Aussie Girl (IRE) 8.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Expensive Queen (IRE) 8.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Medoro 12.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Deep Satin 20.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 Pin Up Betty 20.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Fast Market 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stonestreet Lexington S.) – Stonestreet Lexington S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Ezum 2.00 1 2-1
10 10 Confessional 3.50 1.5 3-1
1 1 Corona de Oro 6.00 2.4 5-1
7 7 The Hell We Did 8.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Exhibition Only 10.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Enforced Agenda 10.00 3.9 7-1
11 11 I Did I Did 10.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Decisive Win 15.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Ramblin 20.00 7.4 14-1
8 8 Trendsetter 20.00 7.4 14-1
5 5 Mister T 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Heeere’s Johnny 3.50 1 2-1
11 11 Coordinator 4.00 1.2 2-1
6 6 West End Kid 4.50 1.4 3-1
3 3 Royal Guard 5.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Starmetal 8.00 2.9 5-1
7 7 Soulman 10.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 Terre Haute 12.00 4.5 9-1
9 9 Sharons Angels 15.00 5.8 11-1
12 12 Mush Carey 20.00 7.9 15-1
5 5 High Honors 20.00 7.9 15-1
10 10 Edzo Said So 30.00 12 23-1
2 2 Penn Star 30.00 12 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.