Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Rowdy Riot | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mitty’s Griddy | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lottery Win | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Big Tech | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gun Fire | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Militant | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Scottish Storm | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 9 | Speed Bias | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Camp Daddy | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bolt At Midnight | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 10 | Bettera | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1A | 8 | Curlins Incharge | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tis Charming | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ringside | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Parkway | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Booming | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hawks Creek | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Poppa Echo | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bourbon’s Fault | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Handsome Herb | 4.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Culpa | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Trouble Ahead | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Heavenlyconveyance | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Colonel Caliente | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Ky Do Declare | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Good News Rocket | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mamoot | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Amentum | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | He Is Heaven Sent | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Yell County | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Matt’s Luck | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Bigwrigdude | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Santinni | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Heavenly Deacon | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Skibidi Rizz | 30.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Sneaky Feet | 30.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Mish | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Surveillance | 1.60 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Nasty Habit | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | R Heisman | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Barksdale | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Heart N Soul | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sitka | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | You’re in Heaven | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Debbie Doll | 2.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Tiz in Sight | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Empath | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ducat | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | L’Eclair | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sassy Fox | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Auntie Vodka | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Amazing Amanda | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Al’s Romeo | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Triple Up | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hicko | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Patton’s Tizzy | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bettys Cash | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Brahms Image | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lord of Rhymes | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Bossofmi | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Four O Nine | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Max Dot Socks | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Count Fleet Sprint H.) – Count Fleet Sprint H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Roll On Big Joe | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Maximum Bourbon | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Booth | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tejano Twist | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dreaminblue | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Wendelssohn | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tough Catch | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mad House | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Munnings Challenge | 1.20 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Jazz Man | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Doublecents | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Titan King | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Extremist | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | No More Kings | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Echobayou | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | P R the Holy Man | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hillbilly Daydream | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Apple Blossom H.) – Apple Blossom H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Nitrogen | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Regaled | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Majestic Oops | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Nerazurri | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Claret Beret | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Five G | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dazzling Move | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Om N Joy | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Blue Fire | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Favorite Day | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Classic Legacy | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Expect the Best | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Fort Sam | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Happy Strike | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Bourbon Society | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Itsinmyblood | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Go Go Boss | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Creative Minister | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Midnight West | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Camp Evans | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Conway | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 5 | El Chavo | 3.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 10 | 9 | Ripple’s Rocket | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 7 | Convolution | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 11 | 10 | Tartarian | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 12 | Southfork | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1A | 14 | Bernardi | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Rapid Return | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 4 | Viney | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Richochet Rick | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 8 | Bo Bo Dough | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 |
| 12 | 11 | Best Flat Out | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Bet On Tiz | 30.00 | 14 | 26-1 |
| 13 | 13 | American Rushfire | 30.00 | 14 | 26-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.