Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, April 12, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Isadora Duncan (IRE) 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Rules and Regs 4.00 1.1 2-1
8 8 Use Me (IRE) 5.00 1.4 3-1
10 10 Eat Hay Run 6.00 1.6 3-1
11 11 Yaudacity 10.00 2.5 5-1
9 9 Tulip 10.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Joke Maker 10.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Bourbon Story 12.00 3 6-1
2 2 River Empress 15.00 3.7 7-1
12 12 High Street Pizzaz 15.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Alluring Beauty 20.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Modern Escape 50.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Senior Officer 1.00 1 2-1
4 4 Sargent Sully 2.50 1.5 3-1
6 6 Bring the Smoke 4.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Lucius Verus 8.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Funny Uncle 10.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Long Pour 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Competitive Market 3.00 1 2-1
11 11 Sunshine Daydream 4.00 1.5 3-1
4 4 Sy B 5.00 2 4-1
5 5 Canterbury Lane 6.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Madame Secretary 8.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Vronti (GB) 8.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Jalila 12.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 Sweet Surrender 15.00 7.2 14-1
6 6 Heart Spin 20.00 9.8 19-1
13 13 Jerseys Parade 20.00 9.8 19-1
12 12 Oraia 20.00 9.8 19-1
10 10 Smokin Hot Blonde 30.00 15 28-1
14 14 Gigi’s World 30.00 15 28-1
15 15 Sweet Molly B 30.00 15 28-1
2 2 Ensorcell 30.00 15 28-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Pass and Go 3.00 1 2-1
10 10 Flash of Chaos 4.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Backside 4.50 1.7 3-1
14 14 Hard Circle 8.00 3.4 6-1
11 11 Al Amjaad 8.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Stoic Sage 8.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Mountain Grandeur 10.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Big Rog 12.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Tregetour 12.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Weekend Reveille 15.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 Circle the Storm 20.00 9.2 17-1
12 12 Whatever 20.00 9.2 17-1
13 13 Pay Heed 20.00 9.2 17-1
6 6 Shirley’s Boyz 30.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Beach Ballad 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Munnings Talks 3.50 1.4 3-1
12 12 Empress New Groove 6.00 2.5 5-1
11 11 Core Memories 8.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 How About Now 8.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Ez Connect 10.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Just Tell Anne 12.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Lady Sybil 15.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Empress Sisi 20.00 8.6 16-1
3 3 Birch Run 20.00 8.6 16-1
1 1 Evangalina 20.00 8.6 16-1
13 13 Oaks Street 30.00 13 25-1
10 10 Uptown Caroline 30.00 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Landed 1.40 1 2-1
1 1 Take Charge Omaha 3.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Pahoehoe d’Oro 4.00 2 4-1
5 5 Gowells Delight 4.50 2.1 4-1
3 3 Sierra November 6.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Foreseen 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Giant’s Causeway S. Presented By Keeneland Select) – Giant’s Causeway S. Presented By Keeneland Select

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Shining Star (CHI) 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Gratefully 4.00 1.9 4-1
15 15 Saratoga Special (IRE) 4.50 2.3 4-1
7 7 In Our Time 5.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Charlene’s Dream 6.00 3.7 7-1
11 11 Time to Dazzle 6.00 3.7 7-1
10 10 Saturday Flirt 8.00 5.4 10-1
12 12 Creed’s Gold 10.00 7.2 14-1
6 6 Pondering 10.00 7.2 14-1
9 9 Love Cervere 10.00 7.2 14-1
1 1 Movin’ On Up 12.00 8.9 17-1
3 3 Twirling Queen 15.00 11.6 22-1
8 8 Big Trouble 15.00 11.6 22-1
16 16 Tempting Eve 15.00 11.6 22-1
14 14 Me Governor 20.00 16 30-1
4 4 Egyptian Mau (SAF) 20.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Civil Liberty 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Criteria 3.50 1.6 3-1
3 3 Beijing 4.00 2 4-1
7 7 Mo the Merrier 6.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Iconoclast 8.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Associated 8.00 4.5 9-1
9 9 Market Runner 12.00 7.1 13-1
5 5 Symbol 15.00 9 17-1
1 1 Mr. Vaggio 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Iron Man Cal 3.00 1 2-1
9 9 Pitkin 4.00 1.4 3-1
10 10 Tenacious Leader 4.50 1.6 3-1
5 5 Capitol Hill 5.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Clever Mischief 8.00 3 6-1
1 1 End of Romance (IRE) 12.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Tough Little Nut 15.00 5.9 11-1
12 12 Joejoe Go 15.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Special Justice 20.00 7.9 15-1
3 3 Megalodon 20.00 7.9 15-1
6 6 Devil’s Harvest 30.00 12 23-1
2 2 Special Caliber 30.00 12 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.