Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, April 25, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Pure Joy 1.60 1 2-1
2 2 Island Girl 6.00 3 6-1
5 5 Plaza Cue 2.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Ati Girl 3.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Too Many Mikes 8.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Una Quaedam 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Tigrado 8.00 1 2-1
1 1 Sargent Bilko 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Happy Away 1.40 2 4-1
8 8 Mo Surprises 10.00 2 4-1
7 7 Uncle With Money 6.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Tio Colocho 15.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Mindful Keeper 20.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Be My Pal 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Barbratina 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 Saint Nancy S 4.50 1.2 2-1
3 3 Lady Orient 1.20 3.7 7-1
1 1 Champagne Nights 8.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Wild Acclaim 10.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Mint Driven 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Lord Majesty 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Illini 3.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Be Here 10.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Upturned Brim 4.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Bet On Bret 8.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Outlier 12.00 6.2 12-1
8 8 Hocus 4.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Ready Pursuit 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Exploration 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Wistucky 1.40 1.1 2-1
6 6 Tiger’s Legacy 4.50 2.1 4-1
2 2 Baytown Bruiser 3.50 2.9 5-1
5 5 Michael’s Cove 20.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Bridge Classic 6.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Mariposa Moon 12.00 1 2-1
7 7 Cocoa Nimbus 4.50 1.5 3-1
1 1 Cookie Time 8.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Frosty for Ever 10.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Dodecahedron 8.00 3.7 7-1
12 12 Ojos Locos 30.00 4.8 9-1
10 10 Evalina 12.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Dancewhenyoucan 5.00 5.4 10-1
11 11 Velveteen 6.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Muscle Mommy 20.00 6.6 13-1
2 2 Blasphemous Rumors 4.00 7 13-1
4 4 Pauline’s Angel 30.00 7.7 15-1
13 13 Click 3.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Birkin Elegance 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Classy’n Connected 2.00 1 2-1
9 9 Dozen Diamonds 3.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Goodbetterbest 4.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Jill Jitterbug 8.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Missy Bee 10.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Razzle Red 12.00 4.5 8-1
6 6 White Lilacs 20.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Lady Blake 30.00 6 11-1
2 2 Sheila’s Lion 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Shadow Coast 3.50 1 2-1
10 10 Where Y’at 5.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Guardian 6.00 2.7 5-1
11 11 Imperial Ruler 30.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Mr. Sensei 12.00 5.3 10-1
9 9 Pulgarcito 20.00 6 11-1
1 1 War Munny 15.00 6.6 12-1
7 7 Army Wildcatter 6.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Stefan’s Title 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Chi Town Prince 4.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Alter Boy 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Dewy’s Denali 30.00 SCRATCH
4 4 A Cab On the Rocks 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Roxelana S. Presented By Lg&e Ku) – Roxelana S. Presented By Lg&e Ku

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 One Magic Philly 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Jersey Pearl 6.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Zeitlos 5.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Mink’s Palace 8.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Vincey Girl 4.50 4.6 9-1
8 8 Asternia 10.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Lotsandlotsofcandy 3.50 SCRATCH
5 5 Lucille Ball 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Without (IRE) 1.60 1 2-1
2 2 Ashley’s Archer 4.50 2.2 4-1
7 7 Theodore George 12.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 The Dover Specter 20.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Fort Thomas 8.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Seven Wonders 6.00 3.8 7-1
10 10 Telescopic 15.00 5.1 10-1
9 9 Curlin’s Gesture 20.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Treaty of Rome 4.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Ramblin 30.00 8.2 16-1
12 12 War Officer 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Write Off Jerry 10.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Taunting 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.