Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Sing a Little Song 1.60 1 2-1
6 6 Danzig’s Dora 2.00 1.1 2-1
3 3 C’Est Cheese 3.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Mascara 6.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Special Sauce 10.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Letmenowhenurready 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Fanshell Beach 1.80 1 2-1
1 1 Booked 1.40 2.1 4-1
5 5 War Ready 4.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Smoke Trail 8.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Jasper Valley 6.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Heart of a Hero 30.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Heartbeat 8.00 1 2-1
6 6 Spying 3.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 French Mistress 8.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Aviso 12.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Sheila’s Lion 4.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Daddario 6.00 6 11-1
8 8 Faye’s Gold 8.00 7.1 13-1
2 2 Queen Wilhelmina 4.50 7.5 14-1
10 10 Unlimited Gold 30.00 8.4 16-1
9 9 Frosty Mojito 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Freaks Go 6.00 1 2-1
2 2 Spun Candy 3.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 No Time Left 4.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 G Rocks 15.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Wisconsin Gal 3.50 6 11-1
7 7 Belle Ofthe Dance 2.00 6.9 13-1
3 3 Bright Lady Day 30.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Joe’s Candy 3.50 1 2-1
12 12 Vino Dominus 4.50 1.4 3-1
9 9 Harbe 5.00 1.6 3-1
10 10 Lasting Legacy 6.00 2 4-1
6 6 Standard Deduction 8.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Lennie G 8.00 2.9 5-1
11 11 Circuit Breaker 10.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Highway Patrol 15.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Outofpi 15.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Good Sal 20.00 7.9 15-1
4 4 Barstool 30.00 12 23-1
8 8 Sierra Power 30.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
16 16 Culprit 6.00 1 2-1
7 7 Gene and Jude 3.00 1.9 4-1
15 15 Mount Horeb 2.50 3 6-1
10 10 Footprint 4.00 5 9-1
14 14 Wish Carefully 20.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Garryowen 6.00 7.8 15-1
9 9 Obelisk 20.00 8.8 17-1
8 8 Li Grand Zombi 8.00 10 19-1
13 13 Hyperbolize 15.00 10.9 21-1
5 5 Rulookinforrayray 8.00 12.1 23-1
4 4 Bagg O Time 20.00 13.1 25-1
3 3 Jack Rabbit 4.50 13.3 25-1
12 12 Khetam 12.00 14 26-1
11 11 Aguila Negra 30.00 15.1 28-1
1 1 Good Point 30.00 15.6 29-1
2 2 Hayes Goal 20.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Comes a Time 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 McIlroy 4.50 1.1 2-1
2 2 Another Monarch 4.00 1.2 2-1
9 9 Nassau Circle 15.00 2 4-1
11 11 Phila Street 20.00 5 9-1
4 4 Vino Subito 6.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Il Cavallino 8.00 6.3 12-1
13 13 Favoritism 10.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Hardtoblame 10.00 7.7 15-1
10 10 Up to No Good 20.00 8 15-1
12 12 Mo Hair Sam 30.00 9.5 18-1
8 8 Fayette Spirit 12.00 9.6 18-1
1 1 Southern Bullet 30.00 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Owen Almighty 5.00 1 2-1
4 4 Furio 6.00 3.1 6-1
9 9 Flood Zone 4.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Echo Again 4.50 3.7 7-1
3 3 Light the Way 10.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Hold My Bourbon 10.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 This Is Uscar 8.00 7.7 15-1
8 8 Dr. Saikali 15.00 8.8 17-1
7 7 U Devil You 3.50 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Heart Headed 8.00 1 2-1
4 4 Bacio 1.60 3.4 6-1
9 9 Smash It 10.00 3.5 7-1
10 10 Camp Hale 5.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Monsieur Candy 12.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Our Starry Night 6.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Simulate 15.00 7.3 14-1
12 12 Sweet Dani Boy 12.00 7.5 14-1
6 6 Beeline 15.00 7.5 14-1
11 11 B D Valeski 20.00 9.9 19-1
2 2 Mischievous Rogue 30.00 11.3 21-1
8 8 Jet Sweep Joe 30.00 12 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.