Belmont At The Big A Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, April 30, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Irresistible 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Pomerance 4.50 1.7 3-1
4 4 Tejanita 6.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Directive 0.80 4.9 9-1
2 2 Moonlit 6.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Bourbon Chase 1.80 1 2-1
5 5 Quiet Wisdom 3.50 1.7 3-1
3 3 Fever Night 2.00 3 6-1
4 4 Shipsational 5.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Enduring Spirit 10.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Dolly’s Bank 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Timia 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Tahila 6.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Baseball Lady 1.40 2.5 5-1
3 3 Amy’s Light 4.50 3 6-1
2 2 Spirit of Esther 10.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 K Gun 4.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Shadyside 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 Mitole’s Girl 3.50 1.7 3-1
5 5 Danneel 8.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Baby Sassicaia 1.80 3.3 6-1
6 6 Dolce Sera 20.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 That’sthefactjack 8.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Rogue Justice 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Blazing Tiger 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Franklin Delano 3.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 No Rain No Flowers 8.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 King’s Remark (IRE) 4.50 6 11-1
1 1 Steady Force 6.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Crude Intentions 20.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Ollie Luke Out 4.50 6.7 13-1
2 2 Mr Hopkins 12.00 7.4 14-1
10 10 Chips and Fish 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Stream It 1.20 SCRATCH
11 11 Chess Match 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Apollo Code 6.00 1 2-1
8 8 New York Scrappy 4.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 El Paco 3.00 3 6-1
2 2 Capt Jax Parrow 15.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Three Little Birds 8.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Tarpaulin 8.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Egyptian 4.50 4.4 8-1
7 7 Come Full Circle 6.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Magni 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Paros 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Belouni (FR) 4.50 3.9 7-1
2 2 Ocean Atlantique 1.80 5.1 10-1
7 7 Sharp Spark 15.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Ambition 8.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Polar Bear Plunge 10.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Life and Light 10.00 7.3 14-1
6 6 Smilensaycheese 20.00 9 17-1
11 11 Centavo 10.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Cicciobello 5.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Military Road 3.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Golden Symphony 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Atira 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Lake Ariel 10.00 1.6 3-1
9 9 Venetta 0.80 1.7 3-1
10 10 Careless Whisper 6.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Speed Walking 15.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Garden of Grace 2.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Shake Em Off 6.00 SCRATCH
8 8 No Need to Panic 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Emergency Nine 4.50 SCRATCH
5 5 Avery’s Wonderland 8.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.