Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, April 30, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 You Ain’t Poppn 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Tejon Pass 6.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Banned for Life 1.60 1.7 3-1
4 4 Star’s Image 4.50 2.6 5-1
3 3 Surf City 12.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Optical 6.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Keep On Moving 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Shared Vision 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 She’z the Law 15.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Cotillard 20.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Chatter 2.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Going Steady 6.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Delightful Claire 1.20 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Kopiana 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 My Secret Dreams 10.00 1.1 2-1
1 1 Market Strategy 15.00 1.3 2-1
9 9 Souperrazzledazzle 6.00 1.3 2-1
5 5 Spotted 3.50 1.3 2-1
2 2 Fresh Out 8.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Silvertown 15.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Motown Sound 30.00 8.1 15-1
7 7 In for a Spin 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Breaking Hearts 5.00 1 2-1
8 8 Theoretical 4.50 2.7 5-1
11 11 Plot 3.50 3.4 6-1
6 6 Play On Player 15.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Hardly Ready 10.00 4.2 8-1
9 9 Ocean Ripple 20.00 4.3 8-1
13 13 English Harbour 4.50 4.8 9-1
7 7 Mother Lode 20.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Lexico 6.00 5 9-1
10 10 Lady Faye 10.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Devices (IRE) 8.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Modern Escape 30.00 7.6 14-1
16 16 Argentinidad 50.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Wella 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Key Actress 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Figurine 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Cliffs of Dover 4.50 1 2-1
12 12 Tregetour 6.00 1.2 2-1
3 3 Jinxzi 6.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Big Rog 6.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Ando 10.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Paired 20.00 4 8-1
1 1 Chasing Gray 4.00 5.2 10-1
11 11 The Reinbow Factor 20.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Old Trace 15.00 6.6 13-1
10 10 Spring St. Dreamer 8.00 6.9 13-1
9 9 Chiquita’s Way 30.00 9.1 17-1
13 13 Silver Dime 10.00 9.1 17-1
7 7 Kick It In 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Uae President Cup Arabian S.) – Uae President Cup Arabian S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 RB BADONKADONK 1.20 1 2-1
4 4 DIAMOND GEM AA 2.50 1.2 2-1
8 8 WMA SMOKE SIGNAL 8.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 AA TAKE A CHANCE 10.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 QUICK RAE AA 12.00 6.6 12-1
3 3 HIGHH STAKES 20.00 7.3 14-1
5 5 HIGHH COUNTRY 10.00 8.5 16-1
7 7 WMA GRAND FINALE 15.00 8.7 16-1
1 1 WMA WILD KISSES 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Honfleur 1.80 1 2-1
5 5 Heavenly Melody 4.50 1.6 3-1
4 4 Cape Sounion (IRE) 3.00 2.6 5-1
11 11 Cynical Humor 15.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Wing Queen 20.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Vow to Resiliency 6.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Twinklee 15.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Strada Del Sogno 20.00 6.9 13-1
2 2 Perrylu 20.00 7.9 15-1
10 10 Bourbiana 8.00 9.4 18-1
8 8 Sammy the Shark 50.00 10.2 19-1
12 12 Treat Yourself 30.00 10.6 20-1
14 14 Not That Simple 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Mass 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Private Property (IRE) 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Jensco 1.80 1 2-1
2 2 Our Shenanigan 3.00 2.4 4-1
5 5 Tearin’up My Heart 15.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Late to the Game 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Angel Bella 2.50 4 8-1
7 7 Madeline’s Promise 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Ashes and Diamonds 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Opening Verse S.) – Opening Verse S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Lagynos 1.60 1 2-1
9 9 West Hollywood 8.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Quatrocento 3.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Chasing the Crown 15.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Balnikhov (IRE) 15.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Mi Bago 15.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Minaret Station 10.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Giocoso 12.00 6 11-1
1 1 Layabout 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (St. Matthews Overnight S.) – St. Matthews Overnight S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Maximum Bourbon 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Concrete Glory 8.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Built 3.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Billal 20.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Bourbon Bash 10.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Lofty Adjudicator 30.00 2.9 6-1
6 6 Back Em Up 6.00 4.6 9-1
11 11 Air Invasion 30.00 6.9 13-1
3 3 Be You 4.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Wendelssohn 12.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Jack’s Promise 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Mamzelle S. Presented By Kentucky Proud) – Mamzelle S. Presented By Kentucky Proud

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Cy Fair 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Final Accord 6.00 1.2 2-1
8 8 Slay the Day 3.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Midnight Martini 12.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Ifyousaidso 20.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Snow Face Princess 15.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Snappy Comeback 8.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Hen Party 4.50 6.6 12-1
4 4 Thank You Amy 30.00 6.7 13-1
11 11 Blushing Justice 20.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Gigabit 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Castle Run 8.00 1 2-1
7 7 Mizzou 3.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Prime Power 3.50 3.1 6-1
12 12 Boss’ Deed 20.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Barker 4.50 4.2 8-1
8 8 Five Wishes 6.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Royal Sapphire 30.00 5 9-1
5 5 Carcar Express 12.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Hellacious 20.00 6.1 12-1
4 4 Dark Rye 15.00 7.9 15-1
1 1 Stormtown 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Krewezin 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.